Paper Economy
This chart shows the seasonally adjusted national pending home sales index along with the percent change on a year-over-year basis as well as the percent change from the peak set in 2005. (SoldAtTheTop)
Pending home sales climb 1.5 percent in March
Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for March showing that pending home sales improved with the seasonally adjusted national index climbing 1.5% from February and increasing 7.0% above the level seen in March 2012.
Meanwhile, the NARs chief economist Lawrence Yun is beginning to adopt the "narrow range" sentiment of years past as limited supply works to mute sales activity:
"Contract activity has been in a narrow range in recent months, not from a pause in demand but because of limited supply. Little movement is expected in near-term sales closings, but they should edge up modestly as the year progresses, ... Job additions and rising household wealth will continue to support housing demand."
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The economy grew slower than most hoped in Q1 2013, with GDP improving at an annualized rate of 2.5 percent from Q4 2012. (SoldAtTheTop)
GDP shows 2.5 percent growth in Q1
Today, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released their first "estimate" of the Q1 2013 GDP report showing that the economy grew in the quarter with real GDP improving at an annualized rate of 2.5% from Q4 2012.
On a year-over-year basis, real GDP increased 1.80% while the quarter-to-quarter non-annualized percent change was an increase of 0.62%.
The latest quarterly results indicate that the most notable source of weakness in the economy came from declines in government spending particularly on national defense with a 11.5% decline in federal national defense spending from Q4.
Residential investment, on the other hand, worked to buoy the overall fixed investment component growing at an annualized rate of 12.6% from Q3.
Keep in mind that these results are likely very poorly estimated and are sure to be revised notably in following quarters and even years to come.
Thursday's jobless claims report showed a decline to both initial and continued unemployment claims as initial claims trended well below the closely watched 400K level. (SoldAtTheTop)
Jobless claims decline by 16,000
Today’s jobless claims report showed a decline to both initial and continued unemployment claims as initial claims trended well below the closely watched 400K level.
Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims declined by 16,000 to 339,000 claims from 355,000 claims for the prior week while seasonally adjusted “continued” claims declined by 93,000 claims to 3.0 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.3%.
Since the middle of 2008 though, two federal government sponsored “extended” unemployment benefit programs (the “extended benefits” and “EUC 2008” from recent legislation) have been picking up claimants that have fallen off of the traditional unemployment benefits rolls.
Currently there are some 1.79 million people receiving federal “extended” unemployment benefits.
Taken together with the latest 3.20 million people that are currently counted as receiving traditional continued unemployment benefits, there are 4.99 million people on state and federal unemployment rolls.
RECOMMENDED: Four job trends for 2013
The National Association of Realtors Existing Home Sales Report for March showing total home sales declining 0.6 percent since February. (SoldAtTheTop)
Home sales fall 0.6 percent in March
Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for March showing a decrease in sales with total home sales declining 0.6% since February but still climbing 10.3% above the level seen in March 2012.
Single family home sales also declined falling 0.2% from February but still rose 9.1% above the level seen in March 2012 while the median selling price increased a notable 12.1% above the level seen a year earlier.
Inventory of single family homes increased from February to 1.69 million units dropping 16.3% below the level seen in March 2012 which, along with the sales pace, resulted in a monthly supply of 4.7 months.
The following charts (click for full-screen dynamic version) shows national existing single family home sales, median home prices, inventory and months of supply since 2005.
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Seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims increased by 4,000 to 352,000 claims from 348,000 claims for the prior week while seasonally adjusted continued claims declined by 35,000 claims to 3.068 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.4 percent. (SoldAtTheTop)
Jobless claims rise by 4,000
Today’s jobless claims report showed an increase to initial unemployment claims and a decline to continued unemployment claims as initial claims trended well below the closely watched 400K level.
Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims increased by 4,000 to 352,000 claims from 348,000 claims for the prior week while seasonally adjusted “continued” claims declined by 35,000 claims to 3.068 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.4%.
Since the middle of 2008 though, two federal government sponsored “extended” unemployment benefit programs (the “extended benefits” and “EUC 2008” from recent legislation) have been picking up claimants that have fallen off of the traditional unemployment benefits rolls.
Currently there are some 1.78 million people receiving federal “extended” unemployment benefits.
Taken together with the latest 3.29 million people that are currently counted as receiving traditional continued unemployment benefits, there are 5.07 million people on state and federal unemployment rolls.
RECOMMENDED: Four job trends for 2013
Mortgage rates declined 4 basis points to 3.52 percent since last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. (SoldAtTheTop)
Mortgage rates drop to 3.52 percent
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications.
The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.
The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) declined 4 basis points to 3.52% since last week while the purchase application volume increased 4% and the refinance application volume increased 5% over the same period.
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March 2013 saw a 7 percent monthly increase to total housing starts while single family housing starts declined by a notable 4.8 percent since February 2013. (SoldAtTheTop)
Housing starts surge 7 percent in March
Today’s New Residential Construction Report showed mixed results in March with a notable 26.9% monthly increase in multi-unit housing starts greatly influencing the 7.0% monthly increase to total housing starts while single family housing starts declined by a notable 4.8% since February with total housing permits declining significantly as well.
Single family housing permits, the most leading of indicators, declined 0.5% from February to 595K single family units (SAAR), but increased 27.7% above the level seen in March 2012 but still remained an astonishing 66.91% below the peak in September 2005.
Single family housing starts declined 4.8% from February to 619K units (SAAR), but rose 28.7% above the level seen in March 2012 but still remained 66.04% below the peak set in early 2006.
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Retail sales including home furnishings, home garden and building materials, consumer electronics and department store sales declined 0.42 percent in March 2013 and slipped 0.64 percent below the level seen in March 2012. (SoldAtTheTop)
Retail sales down in March
Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released its latest nominal read of retail sales showing a decline of 0.4% from February, but a gain of 2.8% on a year-over-year basis on an aggregate of all items including food, fuel and healthcare services.
Nominal "discretionary" retail sales including home furnishings, home garden and building materials, consumer electronics and department store sales declined 0.42% from February and slipped 0.64% below the level seen in March 2012 while, adjusting for inflation, “real” discretionary retail sales declined a notable 2.27% over the same period.
On a “nominal” basis, there had appeared to be “rough correlation” between strong home value appreciation and strong retail spending preceding the housing bust and an even stronger correlation when home values started to decline.
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Chart 1 shows the year-over-year change to nominal discretionary retail sales and the year-over-year change to nominal the S&P/Case-Shiller Composite home price index since 1993 and since 2000. ( Continue… )
Thursday's jobless claims report showed declines to both initial and continued unemployment claims as initial claims trended well below the closely watched 400K level. (SoldAtTheTop)
Jobless claims drop to 346,000
Today’s jobless claims report showed declines to both initial and continued unemployment claims as initial claims trended well below the closely watched 400K level.
Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims declined by a notable 42,000 to 346,000 claims from 388,000 claims for the prior week while seasonally adjusted “continued” claims declined by 12,000 claims to 3.079 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.4%.
Since the middle of 2008 though, two federal government sponsored “extended” unemployment benefit programs (the “extended benefits” and “EUC 2008” from recent legislation) have been picking up claimants that have fallen off of the traditional unemployment benefits rolls.
Currently there are some 1.83 million people receiving federal “extended” unemployment benefits.
Taken together with the latest 3.35 million people that are currently counted as receiving traditional continued unemployment benefits, there are 5.18 million people on state and federal unemployment rolls.
RECOMMENDED: Four job trends for 2013
Individuals receiving food stamp benefits declined to 47.27 million in January 2013 which, as a ratio of the overall civilian non-institutional population, increased 0.79 percent since January 2012 to now stand at a whopping 19.32 percent of the population. (SoldAtTheTop)
Food stamp use down in January
As a logical consequence of the prolonged economic downturn, participation in the federal food stamp program is continuing to rise.
In fact, household participation has been climbing so steadily that it has dwarfed the last peak (which looks like a minor blip by comparison) set as a result of the immediate fallout following hurricane Katrina.
The latest data released by the Department of Agriculture indicated that in January, a whopping 514,518 individual recipients were removed from the food stamps program with the current total still increasing 1.78% on a year-over-year basis.
RECOMMENDED: Four job trends for 2013
Individuals receiving food stamp benefits declined to 47.27 million which, as a ratio of the overall civilian non-institutional population, increased 0.79% since January 2012 to now stand at a whopping 19.32% of the population.
Households receiving food stamps benefits increased by 23,322 to 23.08 million households with the current total rising 4.05% above the level seen a year earlier
As participation continues to swell, so too has the total nominal benefit cost climbing 2.85% on a year-over-year basis to $6.32 billion for the month.
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