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Tech stocks in 2014: Apple, $1 trillion; Microsoft, (toward) zero?

Tech stocks analyst sees Apple selling at $1,000 a share in two years and battling Samsung, which other tech stocks like Nokia, and Microsoft will fall to 'virtually nothing over time.'  

By Regina HingSpecial to CNBC.com / April 4, 2012

Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook speaks about the iPhone 4S at Apple headquarters in Cupertino, Calif., in this 2011 file photograph. In two years, the company could become the world's first $1 trillion company, says one analyst, while many high tech stocks could swoon.

Robert Galbraith/Reuters/File

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There’s a lot of excitement as top analysts continue to forecast when Apple will hit $1,000 a share and becomes the first trillion-dollar company.

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For Gene Munster, managing director and senior research analyst at Piper Jaffray, that day will come sometime in 2014.

“I know that when you look at the $1,000 price tag, it looks like a big number. But when you look back and do the math … it’s not that hard to get there,” Munster told CNBC Tuesday, referring to how Apple shares have nearly doubled in the past year alone.

Munster attributes his very bullish outlook to opportunities in the mobile device space: Out of 1.6 billion total units to be made available in the market in the next couple of years, Piper Jaffray expects Apple to corner at least 400 million of the market, “a very achievable target.”

 This, despite stirring concerns that the new generation of products will be more “evolutionary” rather than revolutionary.

But Munster said that in a survey his firm conducted of iPhone users across the U.S., up to 94 percent claim they will buy another iPhone, meaning the company can count on at least 35 percent to 45 percent of sales from upgrades every year. The highly anticipated Apple television, which is expected to launch next year, adds more upside to its prospects.

 What will the world with Apple is $1,000 a share look like? The tech goliath alone would represent 26 percent of total U.S. technology market cap, while other tech stocks like Research in Motion would be “out of business,” and the other manufacturers such as Nokia and Microsoft will end up “virtually nothing over time,” according to the long-time tech analyst.

 “It’s going to be a two-horse race between Apple and Android phones built on Samsung,” said Munster, who raised his current target on the iPad maker from $718 to $910. Apple is "going to go and rip market share right out of [its competitors] and put that into [its] market cap.”

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