Portugal bailout: one of five things to watch April 7

CNBC.com

Tee time at Augusta, tea time for Boehner, and wait-and-see time for Portugal. Portugal's bailout was not unexpected, and some analysts suggest it could end the European Union's debt crisis without spreading to Spain. But most Asian markets fell on the news. Also, Monsanto's earnings fell short of expectations we previewed Tuesday. Here's some of what we're watching for April 7…

1. Counting Up Receipts: All morning Thursday, major retail chains report March sales data. For the first time in 18 months, we could see a cumulative decline in the numbers, with retailers under pressure from the headwinds of rising gas prices, cold weather and late Easter timing. The consensus estimate is a 0.5 percent dip. Department stores could be hardest hit, with Kohl's and JCPenney amongst the names to watch.

2. Portugal's Hourglass: At this point, it is just a matter of time (and not much time) before Portugal becomes the latest casualty of the European debt crisis, with the Portguese caretaker government saying Wednesday it needs financing from the European Union. How soon and how much are the outstanding questions. That's the backdrop as the European Central Bank readies its Thursday policy decision, in which it's widely expected to raise interest rates to combat inflation. The euro is trading around a 15-month high versus the dollar in advance.

3. The Man in the Middle: As Congressional tug-of-war over the Federal Budget nears Friday deadline, a potential government shutdown becomes increasingly real. While agencies are working now to determine who and what is essential — if such a limited shutdown occurred — the man in the center is House Speaker John Boehner. The newly elected speaker is caught between his opposition across the aisle and the freshly empowered tea party contingent. The rubber is about the meet the road, when it comes to testing Mr. Boehner's control over his caucus.

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