10 surprises about tomorrow's job market

Yet despite the surge on the nation's factory floors, manufacturing employment is expected to shrink from 13.6 million jobs in 2008 to 13 million by 2018, the center forecasts.

"Post-recession growth in that sector will result from greater productivity, not from expansion of the workforce," it says.

3. When in doubt, specialize.

The health-care industry is forecast to be a huge driver of employment this decade, because of an expected growth in demand from health reform and from an aging population. Whether you're looking for a job inside or outside the industry, the trick is to specialize.

By 2020, the economy is projected to need more than 30 percent more optometrists, veterinarians, and database administrators. It will need some 40 percent more marriage and family therapists, interpreters and translators, and meeting and event coordinators.

For something a little more offbeat, you can try nonfarm animal caretaker (up 27.8 percent); athlete, coach, or umpire (up 28.3 percent); or geographer (up 35.4 percent).

4. Green isn't always gold.

In 2008, in the run-up to the presidential election, a study released by the United States Conference of Mayors estimated the US had about 750,000 "green" jobs. Over the next 30 years, it forecast the green sector would account for as much as 10 percent of employment growth, adding 4.2 million jobs.

Those numbers were probably too optimistic: Don't count on a career making wind turbines just yet.

Actually, one of the projections the mayors produced turned out to be far too conservative. Last year, the BLS estimated green jobs for the first time, finding that they numbered 3.1 million, or 2.4 percent of full-time workers. But most of these jobs have been around for a long time. Mark Muro, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington, calculates that only 100,000 new green jobs were created between 2003 and 2010.

Nor are some of the positive things that happened to the green movement last year – a 20-year low in carbon dioxide emissions, plummeting costs to consumers for solar power, and a record year for the wind industry – evidence that green jobs will surge in the future.

Emissions are down mostly because utilities are replacing coal-fired plants with cheaper and cleaner natural gas plants. Solar panels are inexpensive because Chinese manufacturers have flooded the market and driven some US firms out of business. Indeed, the administration has slapped tariffs of between 24 and 36 percent on Chinese panels. And the main reason that the wind industry had a good year is that installers were rushing to finish projects before the potential end of a federal subsidy.

With natural gas so abundant, the push to move to green alternatives looks as if it will be delayed.

5. Welcome to the era of the 'hybrid worker.'

Americans in recent decades have been changing careers with increasing regularity. In the future, many of them will be carving out personalized niche jobs by combining the skills they used in previous work experiences. Gina Vita is one such "hybrid worker."

She started out as an X-ray technician, moved on to cardiac research, and then dropped out of the labor force to raise her children. Twelve years later, she wanted to work again.

Friends began to ask Ms. Vita, who is a fitness buff, to help them with their workouts. So she got her certification from the American College of Sports Medicine and became a personal trainer. "I have that background work in the hospital," she says, which allows her to help clients avoid injury.

She would have made more money resuming a career as an X-ray technician. But "it was a gerbil wheel," she says. "I started out seeing people who are ill. Now, I'm preventing people from getting ill."

Hybrid workers are more common today because the recession delayed career-switching.

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