Gas prices dip, but are still pretty high. Should Obama be worried?
Suburban commuters are considered an important constituency this election year, analysts say, and high gas prices are on their list of complaints. Belatedly, they could be beginning to fall.
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The Obama administration is more than aware of the danger to their reelection campaign. Last week there were rumors the Department of Energy was considering releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
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Mr. Schwartz points out that high gasoline prices adversely affect poor people the most. However, he says, the poor don’t vote in the same numbers as do the middle class. “They are half as likely to vote as higher income people,” he says.
For the Republicans, blaming Mr. Obama for high gasoline prices this late in the game could be difficult, says Shaun Bowler, associate dean for social sciences at UC Riverside.
“Even if the GOP wanted to make hay, they would have to change messages and there are only so many words you can get in an ad,” says Mr. Bowler. “It could confuse the voters – one day you’re blaming Obama for unemployment, the next day for deficit, another day for not supporting Israel, and then for gasoline prices. It’s kind of like piling on.”
However, Mr. Bowler observes the high gasoline prices are probably hurting commuters, who live in the suburbs. According to some analysts, one of the keys to victory in November for either candidate is winning the suburban vote.
“I guess if you live in the suburbs, gasoline prices are on your list of complaints,” he says.
Schwartz says one of the most important factors is how long gasoline prices remain high. “If they start to recede they will have much less impact than the run-up to the financial crisis,” he says referring to 2008 when gasoline prices peaked at $4.11 a gallon.
Gasoline prices may be starting to fall, says Avery Ash, manager of regulatory affairs for AAA in Washington. “We have seen 10 consecutive days of declines,” says Mr. Ash. “There are expectations we will see a steady rate of decline from now until the end of the year.”
Prices are expected to fall in part because the summer driving season is over and the refiners are now shifting over to the winter blend of gasoline, which is less expensive to produce. In addition, refiners in the Gulf of Mexico region are finally getting back to full production in the wake of the damage done by Hurricane Isaac early this month.
“Unless we get another hurricane or there is some geo-political event that takes place,” says Ash, “prices should fall through the end of the year.”
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