The barely discernable economic recovery: What happened?
The US is no longer in a recession, most economists say. But the economic recovery has slowed due to cautious attitudes among consumers and businesses, among other factors.
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Government stimulus. Money from the 2009 Recovery Act is still flowing, but the impact on GDP is fading. Meanwhile, measures such as a tax credit for first-time home buyers have run out, and states continue to cut spending.
On balance, fiscal policy is shifting from stimulative to contractive (probably reducing GDP growth by about one percentage point in the year's second half), according to economists at Goldman Sachs.
Consumer behavior. Households are spending, but cautiously. Many have seen job losses, pay cuts, or declines in the value of homes or retirement accounts. An uptick in personal savings is probably good news for family finances in the long run, but it holds back consumer demand.
Business behavior. Employers are reluctant to hire without clearer signs of a consumer rebound. They also cite uncertainties surrounding federal policy – everything from how health-care reform will affect the cost of labor to whether some taxes will rise next year.
Inventories. Manufacturing activity has revived over the past year, in part because companies needed to rebuild their inventories from recession-panicked low points. Now, some economists say, this restocking may be in the process of slowing down.
What's needed to get the US economy moving faster? That could be the pivotal question of the congressional election season.
Economists and business leaders point to a few areas where policies can make a difference: credit conditions, incentives for hiring, and overall government policy. But they differ on the precise approaches that might help most.
A vital step, say many business people, is a change in tone from government, following a period of both emergency interventions in the economy and major health-care reform legislation.
"Things that all levels of government can do to be pro-business will certainly be a big help," says Mr. Latture in Murfreesboro. "Having some predictability as to what's going to happen is key."
His county has seen some positive signs – for example, the expansion of a factory where Nissan will make its Leaf electric car. But the unemployment rate there remains near the national average of 9.5 percent.
While some policy experts argue for more federal stimulus spending or tax cuts, voters are skeptical of measures that would add to the soaring federal debt. One possible tack is to have any new stimulus be offset by other fiscal changes. Such efforts could include an extended payroll-tax holiday for employers, designed to boost hiring.
On the question of credit, he says, lending conditions have gone from overly easy before the financial crisis to overly tight.
The Federal Reserve could consider new efforts to encourage lending. With or without more Fed help, an expansion of credit is the vital underpinning to Mr. Kasriel's forecast that the economy will grow – at a tepid 2.6 percent pace – next year.