Can the European Union survive the debt crisis?
As differences persist over how to handle the debt crisis, momentum builds among European Union nations to either drop the euro or form new currency alliances.
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"We are a shining exception with good public finances and don't even come close to the limits [under eurozone rules] one is not permitted to surpass," he said. "It is not fair to treat us the same way [as some other countries]."
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Graphic: How a nation's default on its debt would affect foreign banks
(Source: Bank for International Settlements, Research: Leigh Montgomery, Graphic: Rich Clabaugh/Staff)
Under one scenario, more coordination would mean granting one state the right to have oversight of another state's budget to deter supposedly profligate spenders like Greece. But among sovereign nations that would be like letting your friends see your bank account on Facebook.
"It would mean two things," says Robert Hancke, a Belgian expert on the European economy at the London School of Economics. "The government of Country A would have the right to check the books of Country B, despite the fact that it is not elected by the citizens of Country B. Equally, the logic is that taxes from Country A could be used for [some] purpose in Country B. That is not going to happen anytime soon."
Alternatively, Europe could continue to move forward as it is, with each nation trying to balance its own finances and the community coming together when calamity arises. Yet no state wants to bail out another that it doesn't think is fiscally responsible. Witness the rising resistance in Germany – a pivotal player in the Greek bailout plan.
It doesn't help that the debt crisis in Greece has triggered a reflowering of national self-interest in a number of European nations. In simplified terms, richer and supposedly more fiscally prudent northern states are reluctant to surrender sovereignty because of the perceived spendthrift ways of their southern neighbors. In response, more dispassionate observers point out that the frugal north is prospering largely because its exported goods are flooding south.
The yawning differences help explain why the eurozone could be headed for a permanent divide. In order to detach the debt-stricken south, momentum is building for mainly northern states to form a smaller currency union around Germany. The idea is for two zones, each with its own currency, which wags jokingly say could be the northern "neuro" and the southern "pseudo."
As many experts point out, however, the consequences of such a split would be huge: By one estimate, the living standards of inhabitants of the poorer zone would drop by 30 to 45 percent.
Still, the EU is not going to vanish anytime soon. "It will survive for quite a long time on the great force of inertia," predicted Timothy Garton Ash, a British historian, in a recent BBC Radio discussion. "Remember that the Holy Roman Empire lasted as a framework, as a shell, until Napoleon delivered the deathblow. The EU is not going to end tomorrow."
Related:
- World debt crisis: eight reasons you should care
- Germany: Europe's reluctant ATM
- Ireland: the hard path to austerity


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