Stocks for the next decade? Check out these predictions from 2000 first.
Back in 2000, The New York Times asked 10 stock experts for their buy-and-hold picks for 2010. Here's a look at how they fared.
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"They are the dominant player in terms of scale and size, and their earnings will grow at a 50 percent annual rate over the next three to five years," Ms. Sonders predicted. JDS didn't even make it 12 months before collapsing along with the tech bubble. By the beginning of 2010, a share was worth $8.96, down – brace yourself – 98.5 percent from its 2000 high. Over the same period, JDS was bested strongly by competitor Agilent Technologies.Skip to next paragraph
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3. Roger McNamee, Integral Capital Partners
Pick: Flextronics International
The rationale was simple. Mr. McNamee reasoned that the stock would survive because it's cash flow was tied to giants like Cisco. But as Flextronics took a dive in 2002, competitor Jabil Circuit soared. Flextronics stayed below the market and ended worth roughly 65 percent less than its 2000 value.
1. John W. Ballen, MFS Emerging Growth Fund
The database and software giant stayed strong over the last 10 years, inching up in value by 2 percent. Considering inflation, investors would have gotten better returns from long-term bonds or CDs. Mr. Ballen was spot-on with some of his analysis back in 2000, though, predicting that Oracle's astronomic 125:1 ratio of sale price to next year's profits back in 2000 would come back to earth as the company's sales spiked. In 2010, that ratio is 21.3. Considering all that the market has been through, a 2 percent gain is far better than falling-off-a-cliff losses that many sustained.
Pick: Zee Telefilms
Betting on Indian consumers' increasing appetite for television was a good one, but Zee Entertainment didn't quite keep up with the rest of the Indian stock market until October of 2009, when the rest of the world was still staggering financially. Going forward, India's powerful growth might bear Zee along to bigger things. For now, its late surge moves it from bust to even.
3. Robert E. Turner, Turner Investment Partners
Pick: Cisco Systems
Solid but unspectacular, the networking giant survived the most recent financial downturn largely unscathed, which speaks well of Cisco's staying power, the element of value Mr. Turner highlighted back in 2000. It spent the decade much more stable through time than competitor Juniper Networks and outperformed competitor Alcatel-Lucent.
4. Ralph Wagner, Acorn Fund
Pick: Jones Apparel Group
"I think women will be wearing clothes 10 years from now, and Jones Apparel will be making their fair share of those clothes," Mr. Wagner said at the time. Well, they are certainly still wearing clothes. But Jones Apparel isn't doing very well at making money off the trend.
A Berkshire Hathaway darling at the turn of the century that tanked in the most recent economic troubles. For most of the last decade, Jones Apparel was beating the market by a few points each year. But starting in 2007, the company began a slide downward, landing down a third of its 2000 value. It's catching back up to the market, however.