Stocks for the next decade? Check out these predictions from 2000 first.
Back in 2000, The New York Times asked 10 stock experts for their buy-and-hold picks for 2010. Here's a look at how they fared.
This is the time when people make impossibly bold predictions, like Best Stocks for the New Decade and 20 to Hold through 2020.Skip to next paragraph
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But before you click over to your broker's website, consider this cautionary tale.
In early 2000, The New York Times asked 10 eminent investors to make their predictions for stocks to buy and hold through the year 2010. It seems almost quaint today. Everyone was worried about "Y2K" computer glitches but no one had heard of Osama bin Laden, the dotcom crash, IEDs, subprime loans, Barack Obama, Google, Twitter, or the "great recession." TARP was something you used on a camping trip. Sept. 11 was just another day.
So the future, in many ways, is unimaginable. What's remarkable about the following list, then, is that some of those stock picks were right.
1. Bill Nasgovitz, Heartland Value
Pick: Henry Schein Inc.
Back in 2000, health and dental supplies distributor Henry Schein was trading at about $13. Today, it's up 300 percent to $53.42. "We need more and more dental care, not only in the U.S. but worldwide," Mr. Nasgovitz told the Times. That ka-ching you just heard? The sound of forecasting glory.
Pick: Waste Management
Mafia jokes aside, who knew taking out the trash could be so lucrative? Over 10 years, the least sexy pick of the 2000 litter almost doubled in value to $33.84. Noting that WM had only three major competitors and no exposure to technological or Internet-based bubbles, Mr. Miller's bet on value and endurance paid off.
3. George A. Mairs III, Mairs & Power Growth Fund
Mr. Mairs said he was comfortable holding shares "for years, even decades" back in 2000, and Medtronic was a good choice for the next 10 years. Even in the market's darkest days, Medtronic stayed a brisk few pegs ahead. It didn't soar like competitor St. Jude Medical or even have a several-year run of glory through the middle of the decade like Boston Scientific, but it ended the decade ahead of the latter and stayed strong throughout.
1. Laszlo Biriny, Deutsche Bank
Returns on Finnish cellphonemaker Nokia were over 3,600 percent in the 1990s, and while Mr. Biriny didn't forecast growth along that scale, he did expect the stock to continue to grow. And grow it did. But it also collapsed – twice. Between 2000 and 2009, it lost two-thirds of its value to end at about $13 per share. Facing stiff competition from big firms that weren't even on Nokia's radar screen back in 2000 (Google, Apple), the company is in a tough fix.
2. Liz Ann Sonders; Campbell, Cowperthwait
Pick: JDS Uniphase