Are jobless next to need a bailout?

Among his other proposals: an extension of unemployment benefits for those who can't find work and aid to the auto industry and its suppliers.

The multipronged approach appeals to some advocates for the unemployed. In fact, if the American economy continues to falter, "I think the new administration might have to look at a more direct role in job creation," says Andrew Stettner, deputy director of the National Employment Law Project in New York. "You have to look at things that are more dramatic."

In the near term, the employment numbers are likely to remain bleak. Planned job cuts surged 19 percent in October, Challenger, Gray & Christmas, a Chicago-based outplacement firm, reported Nov. 5. According to the firm, employers announced plans to cut 112,884 jobs, the highest amount in five years. So far this year, announced job cuts are up 14 percent over 2007.

"There are now almost 2.8 million people unemployed in the last year chasing fewer jobs," says John Challenger. "So far in 2008, we've had a net loss of 1.2 million jobs."

In addition, some 6.7 million people are working part-time jobs because they can't find full-time employment, he says. This is up from 3.2 million a year ago.

Even those jobs may be in danger. Retailers hired the fewest number of holiday workers since 1991, a recession year, Mr. Challenger has found. Retail hiring is down 19 percent compared with last year. "There will be fewer jobs, no question," says Challenger.

One area that is particularly vulnerable is manufacturing, which lost 90,000 jobs in October.

"We are now seeing horrendous declines in manufacturing activity," says Dan Meckstroth, chief economist at the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI in Arlington, Va.

Automobile sales are now running at a 10.5 million annual rate, down from 12.5 million in September. The break-even point for Detroit is 16 million vehicles sold per year.

"This is going to affect not just the auto assembly plants, but parts producers and everyone else involved in manufacturing," says Mr. Meckstroth.

On Nov. 6, the Detroit automakers pressed lawmakers for loans to help them get through the downturn. On Nov. 7, Ford said it lost $2.7 billion in continuing operations in the third quarter and had burned through $7.7 billion in cash. It also announced it would lay off 2,260 white-collar workers in North America in the weeks ahead.

Even exports, which had been a pillar for the US economy, are now declining, according to the latest survey from the Institute for Supply Management.

"It is amazing how rapidly conditions have deteriorated," says Meckstroth.

Aside from the loss of jobs in manufacturing, 49,000 construction jobs were lost, along with 38,000 retail jobs, 45,000 professional jobs, and 24,000 positions in finance.

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