As war winds down, will Iraq's progress hold steady?
Violence has plummeted and US forces are pulling back, but the year ahead will test the staying power of gains throughout the country.
from the January 8, 2009 edition
Page 2 of 3
How quickly American forces could withdraw "depends on how much equipment we're leaving behind," says one military official. "If we're allowed to leave most of it behind, we can be gone pretty quickly."
Iraqis could vote in a national referendum later this year on whether to demand that US troops withdraw sooner. If that vote is held, it has the potential to force the withdrawal of American forces from Iraq as early as mid-2010 – a similar time frame promised by Obama.
What role will the Sons of Iraq play this year?
American military commanders believe the group is essential to keeping the peace. What happens to this approximately 90,000-large, well-armed but largely untrained group could impact the state of the insurgency.
The Sons of Iraq (SOI) includes many ex-insurgents and is a largely Sunni group originally funded by the US. It grew out of the Awakening Movement in Anbar Province in which tribal chiefs turned against AQI and joined the Americans. But now it's bankrolled by the Shiite-led government, which has pledged to incorporate more of them into official security forces but remains suspicious of the local militias. It's still unclear whether Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki will keep them on the government payroll or disband the group altogether. As a counterweight, Mr. Maliki has established tribal support councils funded by his government to serve similar functions in Shiite areas.
SOI members say that, if they are disbanded, many will be either be killed by AQI fighters or return to the insurgency.
Has the political situation improved?
Iraqis have more control over their destiny than at any time since Saddam Hussein was toppled in 2003. As security fears recede, the focus has shifted to whether provincial elections – scheduled for Jan. 31 – will result in more representation and eventually a better-functioning government. The next national elections could take place as early as December 2009.
The provincial polls in 14 of Iraq's 18 provinces are expected to redraw Iraq's political landscape. Iraq's Sunni Arab minority, which widely boycotted previous polls, could come out in large numbers. A more representative government would mean less likelihood of a resurgence of the Sunni insurgency but would include setbacks for Kurdish and Shiite parties.
A bewildering array of candidates and parties and lingering security concerns will make voting a challenge in many parts of the country, where literacy rates have plunged since the 1990s. In Maysan Province, for instance, 800 candidates are expected to be on the ballot.
How volatile is the rift between Arabs and Kurds?
It is simmering and could erupt if Baghdad and the semiautonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) don't come to an agreement over Kirkuk, the oil-rich city that is under central government authority but claimed by the Kurds as their historic capital. Added to the mix is a large Iraqi Turkmen minority backed by Turkey. A referendum to decide who should control the city has been postponed twice, and the UN has so far been unable to find an acceptable formula for a political settlement that would pave the way for a vote.
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