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| A Peruvian shaman perfromed a ritual of predictions for the new year in front of a picture of President-elect Barack Obama
in Lima, Peru. Enrique Castro-Mendivil /Reuters |
Great expectations for Obama abroad
Team Obama is more pragmatic and less ideological than its predecessors, say diplomats and campaign advisers. Afghanistan will be a foreign-policy priority.
By Robert Marquand | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitorfrom the January 5, 2009 edition
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The Promise of Change was central to Barack Obama's presidential election. It also played well abroad to a global populace that was largely critical of US policy in Iraq and its handling of suspected terrorists, according to polls. Expectations for a new approach are high. In Africa, President-Elect Obama is seen as their man. In Europe and elsewhere, he's a new symbol of American ideals of equality – where even a black man who went to school in Indonesia can reach the pinnacle of power. But are such expectations unrealistic? How will Obama capitalize on the goodwill that now exists?
Can Obama restore US prestige abroad?
In many places, Obama's election has already reversed a deep pessimism, according to foreign-policy analysts, ambassadors, and intellectuals interviewed. Some American diplomats say that, despite problems that would be serious without a global financial crisis, they are optimistic, guardedly, for the first time in years. Obama does not have a long track record of foreign policy experience. But he represents an opening abroad for something new. The intelligence with which the Obama team organized the campaign and outlasted formidable opponents is not lost on foreign elites. Europeans say Obama "gets" the globalized world, and his biography gives him some unique insights.
"Obama is the most global, multilateral president we've had in a century," argues Ronald Asmus, director of the German Marshall Fund in Brussels, "and he will change the direction of US foreign policy."
In Berlin in July, Obama described the world as at "a crossroads" – testing a future that will have greater unity and a "shared destiny" among peoples, or not.
No one underestimates the challenges of disunity. "We are entering territory in which the risks and penalties of getting something like the global economic crisis wrong – are greater than the stakes during the cold war … a time when the worst didn't happen," says François Heisbourg at the Foundation for Strategic Research in Paris. "No one has figured out how to deal with this new crisis; Obama will have to learn fast."
How will Obama change the 'tone' of US diplomacy, as promised during the campaign?
Five basic themes have emerged: First, Team Obama is more pragmatic, and less ideological than its predecessors; it's open to negotiation. Second, we can expect an emphasis on example, and a de-emphasis on rhetoric such as "spreading democracy." Third, he brings an end to the neoconservative model of tying notions of freedom directly to American military might, a rebalance of "soft" and "hard' power. Fourth, we should see an emphasis on working with international organizations and groups such as the UN and the World Bank. Fifth, putting America's house in order – economic recovery, energy security, renewed infrastructure at home – is crucial to rebuilding global respect.
"Look for dropping the preachy rhetoric, which Clinton was just as bad at as Bush," says James Swihart, a career diplomat and former ambassador to Lithuania. "I would like to see the word 'must' and 'historic' dropped from speeches. The big question is whether Obama will drop the phrase 'war on terror.' It's long overdue."
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