Could an Obama win hurt Chávez?

Without Bush to rail against, Chávez will be left without a foil, say analysts.

from the July 16, 2008 edition

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Policies aside, the people of Venezuela seem much more drawn to Obama than McCain. "I would say that traditionally here in Venezuela, most Venezuelans support a Democratic Party candidate," says Steve Ellner, Venezuelan-based author of the recently published book "Rethinking Venezuelan Politics." "And that cuts across political and ideological differences."

That affinity is reflected worldwide in a recent survey by the Pew Global Attitudes Project, which showed that respondents in most all countries surveyed say they have more confidence in Obama than McCain. The survey included 24,717 responses across 24 countries, including Brazil and Mexico in Latin America.

But in Venezuela, Obama, who would be the first African-American president of the US, inspires because he represents a world changing – the same transformation that so many Venezuelans believe in with Chávez, who they say is governing for the poor for the first time. "To have a black president in the US? That has to be a good thing," says Nancy Lam, a housewife from Caracas.

Of course, many Latin Americans support McCain, says Ann Farnsworth-Alvear, director of Latin American and Latino studies at the University of Pennsylvania, especially those who favor free trade or US military support in the region.

But she says excitement at the prospect of an Obama victory, especially in the Afro-Latin community, is palpable.

In Colombia, where she focuses her research, "many Afro-Colombians are inspired by Obama ... there are editorials back and forth," she says. Some are waiting cautiously to see how an Obama presidency would play out and whether ultimately it would advance the goals of the Afro-Latin community. "But it's an historic moment."

Harder to call Obama the 'devil'

What may be historic for some might backfire for Chávez, however, as he has thrived on confrontation.

Probably his most audacious move was calling Bush the "devil" at a UN General Assembly meeting in September 2006. In another particularly virulent speech Chávez called Bush everything from a donkey to a drunkard – not to mention a coward and an assassin, ignorant and genocidal – in the span of three minutes.

"I think that if Obama were elected, that would certainly take a lot of wind out of [Chávez's] sails," says Nikolas Kozloff, author of the recently published book "Revolution! South America and The Rise of The New Left."

Others say that Chávez needs Obama to win because of his growing setbacks at home. "He does not have the luxury of permanent confrontation anymore," says Agustin Blanco Munoz, a historian at the Central University of Caracas. "But if there is a better relationship with the US, Chávez will be sure to say it is because Bush is the bad guy, not because of him."

It is unclear whether Obama would welcome such a relationship. He initially said he'd sit down with the Venezuelan president, which sparked criticisms of naiveté by his opponents. Later he seemed to backtrack. At a meeting with Cuban-Americans in Miami in May, he suggested that Chávez had risen to power because Bush has neglected the region. "No wonder than that demagogues like Hugo Chávez have stepped into this vacuum," he told the audience.

It is also unclear how cozy Chávez would ultimately want to get, if at all. Mr. Walser, for example, says that, although his rhetoric would lead many to believe otherwise, it is not Bush who is his enemy, but anything that gets in the way of his vision. He is likely to forge forward with it no matter who is president.

"He would shift his tone probably away from personal attacks to questioning US policies and engagement in the hemisphere," Walser says. But his real aim "is his idea of restructuring Latin America, to make it an independent force."

So his projects and bilateral priorities would likely be the same, as would be the themes of his speeches – they just wouldn't generate as many clicks on YouTube.

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