Can McCain deliver his home state?

Even in Arizona his rift with the far right is cutting into his 'favorite son' appeal.

from the June 18, 2008 edition

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McCain's first campaign, engineered by top Rhodes consultant Jay Smith, is legendary here. The novice politician boned up on Arizona issues – mainly water, mining, and native American rights – and took to the streets. For six hours a day, six days a week, McCain knocked on doors, introduced himself to thousands of people, and wore out three pairs of shoes in the process – maintaining a blistering pace even as the mercury soared above 100 degrees F. His father-in-law's company and connections, too, provided McCain an entree to the state's corporate and political leaders.

"He's quite simply the hardest-working candidate that I ever encountered in 35 years of being involved in political campaigns," says Mr. Smith, CEO of Smith & Harroff Inc., a political consulting firm in Alexandria, Va., who worked with McCain for a decade. "No one comes close to the energy level and enthusiasm that he displayed obviously in his first campaign, but [also] in all his subsequent campaigns.... He is just indefatigable."

During that first Republican primary, some rivals tried to tag McCain a carpetbagger and an opportunist. That not only didn't stick, but McCain turned it to his advantage. As Smith recounts it (and as detailed in Robert Timberg's book "The Nightingale's Song"), McCain fielded questions about those claims for weeks. But one night, apparently fed up, he responded, rather hotly.

"Listen pal, I spent 22 years in the Navy. My father was in the Navy. My grandfather was in the Navy. We in the military service tend to move a lot.... I wish I could have had the luxury, like you, of growing up and living and spending my entire life in a nice place like the First District of Arizona, but I was doing other things. As a matter of fact, when I think about it now, the place I lived longest in my life was Hanoi," referring to the 5-1/2 years he spent as a POW in the infamous prison in North Vietnam.

Smith says there was silence for a few moments, then thunderous applause.

McCain won the GOP primary, one of his closest races ever. The general election, as well as subsequent elections to the US Senate, was pretty much a walk in the park for the honored war hero.

Help during the Keating Five scandal

Most experts say his service to Arizona has been stellar, except for the so-called Keating Five scandal of the late 1980s. Five senators, including McCain, were investigated for meeting with regulators on behalf of Charles Keating, who was trying to save his ailing savings and loan. After hearings ended in 1991, McCain received the mildest rebuke of the five: "poor judgment."

McCain himself has said it's the worst thing that's happened to him, even worse than imprisonment in North Vietnam. Most experts say he survived it in part because he works well with the press and in part because the Arizona Republican Party stood behind him.

But that, now, is part of their disaffection with him, experts say.

"The religious right that is now so opposed to him think they saved his career by standing up for him [during the Keating Five scandal]," says Bruce Merrill, a political scientist and pollster at Arizona State University in Tempe. "They think he deserted them by moving to the center seven years ago when he ran for president, which you have to do to run. But that is behind some of the hard feelings those on the far right have."

The Arizona GOP is split in its support for McCain, say most experts, though they can't tell how big a faction is disaffected. A recall effort in the summer of 2001 by far-right Republicans had appeared to be gathering momentum, but was abruptly ended after the 9/11 attacks. This spring, in a straw poll for president at a state Republican Party convention, McCain received only about 5 percent of the vote. Moreover, he received just 47 percent of the vote – not high for a favorite son, these experts say – during the February presidential primary here.

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