Hamas, Israel appear on brink of cease-fire

Hamas officials in Egypt Monday considered terms of a possible 'tahadiyeh,' or calming, in recent fighting with Israel even as violence flared on both sides of the border.

posted May 20, 2008 at 3:40 p.m. EDT

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"The terrorism of Hamas in the Gaza Strip is the less troublesome threat," wrote Amos Harel, the military commentator for the daily Haaretz newspaper. "The recent developments in Beirut are keeping Israel's intelligence awake at night."

Haaretz reported that a Hamas-Israel cease-fire could be implemented by the end of the week. Though Israel isn't expected to formally announce any kind of truce (the prime minister's spokespeople don't even admit to having indirect talks with Hamas), Israel's military establishment will wait to make sure there's a full cessation before making good on its commitment.

Mr. Olmert, meanwhile, is grappling with a growing tide of reports about an investigation into whether he accepted money improperly from backers when he was a cabinet minister and the mayor of Jerusalem.

With the background noise of the recently revealed investigation, commentators are speculating that every one of Olmert's decisions are colored by his interest to deflect calls for his resignation over the scandal. And though many Israelis might support an invasion of Gaza, Olmert will almost certainly face cynics who accuse him of sacrificing soldiers for his political career.

Israel has appeared to give up on a demand that captured soldier Gilat Shalit be released as part of the cease-fire, despite calls from his parents that he be included. Instead, Israel is insisting on "movement" on a resolution to his case.

"The best thing for Olmert to do now, is to have some peace and quiet," says Yossi Alpher, the coeditor of the online Israeli-Palestinian dialogue website, Bitterlemons.org. "He's being investigated and from this standpoint this is the best move he can make."

Mr. Alpher says, however, that he believes an agreement is doomed to failure.

The same assessment prevails on the other side of the border, where Hamas is convinced that, sooner or later, Israel will order an invasion in Gaza.

And yet, Hamas is more worried that the daily cycle of attack and retaliation ultimately undermines their rule in the Gaza Strip, say observers.

A cessation of hostilities is expected to be accompanied by an Israeli commitment to reopen border crossings that are the coastal strip's economic lifeline. The siege is so severe that blackouts have become a part of daily life in Gaza and cooking gas is in constant shortage.

"They need a chance to deepen their rule," says Mr. Okal. "They want to change the situation in the Gaza Strip."

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