Pakistani leaders' rift strains stability

Top parties missed a joint deadline Wednesday to reinstate judges deposed by President Musharraf.

from the May 1, 2008 edition

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Analysts also suggest that Zardari is not eager to pick a fight with Musharraf – and reinstating the judges would be seen as a potential first step toward the president's impeachment. It is widely believed that Musharraf called the state of emergency because the Supreme Court was about to rule his October reelection illegal.

But Musharraf's impeachment is precisely what Sharif wants. He was prime minister at the time of Musharraf's military coup in 1999, and there is the scent of revenge about his crusade. But Zardari must factor in pressure from Western countries, which still support Musharraf and see him as a reliable pro-Western influence in Islamabad. Zardari's PPP is more naturally sympathetic to the West, given its liberal, secular orientation.

"The fear is that if the chief justice is restored, there will be a challenge against [Musharraf's] election," says Rasul Baksh Rais, a political scientist at the Lahore University of Management Sciences.

Professor Rais and others suggest that Zardari was in a less commanding position politically when he signed the deal, and might have done so only as a hedge. Since then, Zardari has secured the support of a pro-Musharraf party, the Muttahida Quami Movement. Another Musharraf ally, the Pakistan Muslim League – Quaid-e-Azam (PML-Q), has sided with Zardari on the idea of reforming the judiciary instead of restoring the old judges.

"It could end up being largely a continuation of Musharraf's eight years in power, with a new partner in the shape of the PPP," says Mahmood, the columnist.

For his part, Zardari has said judicial reform is more important than a knee-jerk restoration of the judges. This means fundamental reforms requiring legislation, which could take weeks or months, party officials say. Zardari wants to take up the issue of restoring judges only when that legislation is passed.

But critics say the talk of constitutional reform is another hedge: "If he finds there is a [public] backlash, he can come up with a constitutional amendment that is face-saving," says Mr. Rahman.

Public opinion, however, appears to have changed little since the election, when it was strongly against Musharraf and in favor of the restoration of the judges. This could put Zardari in the same position Musharraf found himself in during the final months before the election – trying to go against the will of the people.

"At the popular level, Zardari is losing a lot," says Khalid Rahman, a political analyst at the Institute of Policy Studies in Islamabad.

Rahman and others expect renewed protests until the judges are restored, presenting Zardari with a new challenge. He does not inspire the loyalty and devotion among followers that his wife did, and many of them are wary of being seen as propping up the Musharraf regime.

"If things start to unravel," says Mahmood, "the party will unravel."

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