Clinton's Pennsylvania victory gives campaign new life

A convincing win spurs the fight forward, but does little to close the gap in delegate count with Obama.

from the April 24, 2008 edition

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Despite her nearly impossible mathematical odds in the pledged delegate count – and an average 10-point deficit against Obama in national polls of Democrats – she has stayed in the race in an apparent effort to convince superdelegates that she is more electable than Obama. Gaffes by Obama in the seven-week gap between Ohio and Pennsylvania seemed to point up his relative inexperience in tough campaigns, and in the end, may have widened his deficit in the final vote count in the Keystone State. Most memorable was Obama's private comment during a San Francisco fundraiser that rural Pennsylvania voters are "bitter" about their economic situation and "cling" to their guns and religion.

Clinton hit Obama hard for days over the comment, and appeared to boost her own negatives in the process. She also faced a rough patch when she was caught embellishing a story about a trip to Bosnia as first lady in the 1990s.

But in the end, Clinton held onto her base in a state whose demographic profile seemed tailor-made for her – older voters, lower-income voters, Roman Catholics, and women. Obama held his base, the African-American vote, young people, and upper-income voters. The white male vote ended up breaking for Clinton, 56 percent to 44 percent, according to exit polls. One demographic that went against the usual pattern was white voters ages 18 to 29, who make up 8 percent of the Pennsylvania Democratic electorate. Clinton won them 51 percent to 49 percent.

In order for Obama to have beaten Clinton in Pennsylvania, he would have had to do extremely well in Philadelphia and its surrounding suburbs. He did win the city handily, but not by enough. And in the state's three key battleground regions – the Philadelphia suburbs, the Lehigh Valley, and south-central Pennsylvania – he underperformed.

Terry Madonna, head of the Franklin and Marshall College Poll in Lancaster, Penn., points to two factors that explain Obama's defeat. "No. 1, on issues that mattered to voters, especially the economy, she scored better," he says. "And also, in the end, the business of 'Bittergate' did have an effect."

Before his "bitter" comment, Obama had been steadily closing his gap with Clinton, but afterward, her lead stabilized and eventually grew in the final days of the race.

For Republicans, who weeks ago settled on Sen. John McCain of Arizona as their presumptive nominee, the drawn-out Democratic nomination battle has provided fodder for the general election campaign. With Clinton, the Bosnia gaffe revives questions about her truthfulness. With Obama, the "bitter" comment opens the door to charges that he is elitist.

"Obama started out walking on water, but now he's swimming with the rest of them," says Jack Pitney, a political scientist at Claremont-McKenna College in Claremont, Calif.

On the plus side for the Democrats, the extended primary battle has engaged voters in states that usually don't have a say in the nomination. In Pennsylvania alone, the party registered 326,000 new voters, some of them first-time voters and others switching their registration from independent or Republican. If the party can unite in the fall and get over the bruised feelings from the primaries, the Democrats could be hard to beat.

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