Rice sees Iraqi unity emerging in battle against Sadr

Secretary of State Rice arrived in Baghdad on Sunday as Iraqi, US, and British forces continued to clash with the Mahdi Army.

from the April 21, 2008 edition

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US helicopters, unmanned drones, and in some cases tanks have been called in to the neighborhood in an effort to stop the mortar and rocket fire hitting the Green Zone over recent weeks. That fire picked up sharply in late March when Maliki launched the government operation against Shiite militias in Basra and in Sadr City.

But Mr. Haran says most of the families in his immediate neighborhood had no connection to antigovernment forces. Now about two-thirds of the area's 1,000 families have moved away, his shop, which employed 20 workers, is shuttered, and "those young men who have no job anymore are more likely to end up fighters now."

But Sadr, who has appeared to be on the brink of defeat before, only to bounce back politically, may yet find a way to remain standing without actually launching his all-out war – especially if he sees powers that have been his support increasingly aligned against him.

Not only does Maliki seem to be focusing what the government has dubbed an antimilitia campaign almost exclusively against Sadr, but even the Iranians who have given Sadr succor are making supportive noises toward Maliki's undertaking against "criminal" groups.

That may be one explanation among many as to why an ongoing government sweep in Basra in the Sadr stronghold of Al-Hayaniyah is proceeding with little resistance.

"The operation seeks to disarm these neighborhoods where criminal elements have been storing weapons and attacking government forces," says Brigadier Gen. Mahammed al-Askeri, Iraqi Army spokesman. "The idea of course is also to prevent the fighters there from going out to other nearby provinces and continuing their fight."

Such fighters are thought to have received backing from Iranian-trained groups, what the US military calls "special groups," when the fighting in Basra started.

But if the Iranians are now tempering their support for Sadr – at least for his more militant wing – and if Iraq's Sunni and Kurdish political factions remain behind Maliki, Sadr may have met his match.

Rice said during her Baghdad foray that Sadr was welcome to join in Iraq's way forward as long as his participation is political. The bearded cleric still has the largest single bloc in the Iraqi parliament, the value of which he is no doubt mulling as he decides what to do next.

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