Petraeus to Congress: reassess Iraq before further troop cuts

The US strategy would effectively end Bush's role in the war, pushing decisions to his successor.

posted April 8, 2008 at 3:54 p.m. EDT

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"This is just the next page in a war plan with no exit strategy," said Sen. Carl Levin (D) of Michigan, chairman of the Armed Services panel.

Senator Clinton used some of her seven minutes of allotted question time to make a mini-speech on her own Iraqi policy.

"It's time to begin an orderly process of withdrawing our troops," she said.

In any case, it now seems likely that Clinton herself or her Democratic rival Senator Obama or presumptive GOP nominee Senator McCain will be making the next major decisions in regard to US troop levels in Iraq. The assessment process outlined by Petraeus would last until the election, and perhaps beyond.

In fact, some experts think the US might have substantial numbers of troops in Iraq until the election of 2012.

"In a best-case scenario, the US could leave Iraq by the end of the next administration," writes Anthony Cordesman, a military expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, in a new analysis of the US position in Iraq.

Fighting between Shiite factions in Iraq has only begun, and is likely to intensify, judges Mr. Cordesman. That, in turn, could make Sunnis even more suspicious of the Shiite-dominated central Iraqi government.

The US situation in Iraq is tenuous, and the odds of success are no better than even, according to Cordesman. But the US bears some responsibility for creating the situation in the first place, and withdrawal might lead to chaos.

"There is still a marginally better case for staying than for leaving," writes Cordesman.

Some other experts think it may be time for a US withdrawal, however.

The state of Iraq is such that it cannot be rebuilt without the assistance of neighboring countries, European allies, and the United Nations, writes Steven Simon, a Middle East expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, in a new article in the journal Foreign Affairs.

But such help won't be forthcoming unless the US makes a public commitment to getting out, Mr. Simon says.

"Cooperation from surrounding countries and European partners is unlikely to be forthcoming without a corresponding US readiness to cede a degree of the dubious control it now has over events in Iraq," writes Simon.

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