The story you're missing on superdelegates

Their duty is to pick the Democrat who can win.

By Daniel Baer

from the March 26, 2008 edition

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Cambridge, Mass. - It is now clear that superdelegates will ultimately decide the Democratic nominee for president, so the campaigns for both Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama have been making their case for what these party pooh-bahs ought to do.

Senator Obama's camp asserts that superdelegates need to vote for whoever wins more pledged delegates – almost certainly him. Senator Clinton's team contends that her often-decisive victories in large and swing states – crucial battlegrounds in the November election – should compel superdelegate support.

As in many political arguments, both claims have a hint of substance, but neither quite tells the whole story.

The Obama position boils down to this: "The people have spoken; you can't go against the people." But that's tenuous and counterintuitive. If that were the case, there'd be no need for superdelegates at all: The Democrats would simply have party rules that made the winner of pledged delegates – no matter how thin the margin – the nominee.

What Obama's people are right about, though, is that the people have spoken (and are still speaking), and what they've said so far is that Democrats have two great candidates, both of whom inspire large numbers of supporters.

It is a superdelegate's duty to reflect carefully on each candidate's strengths, on how she or he would fare in a general election, and how he or she would perform as president.

In wooing superdelegates, Obama's campaign must make the case that he can go the distance, withstand Republican attacks, and reach beyond the core demographics that have supported him in caucuses and primaries thus far.

Here's where the Clinton campaign's counterargument comes in: Her wins with key Democratic constituencies in large states and swing states, and a possible popular-vote edge, provide a compelling reason for superdelegates to tilt her way.

But this, too, is only part of the story. The popular vote, like the delegate tally, is likely to be a virtual tie. And while her wins in critical swing states are significant, it is difficult for either candidate to make conclusive arguments about general election viability based only on performance in primaries or caucuses.

Superdelegates shouldn't meditate on particular numbers from caucuses and primaries alone, but must also look ahead to what we know about key factors in the general election.

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