McCain clinches; Clinton rallies, checking Obama's momentum

She wins three of four March 4 primaries, reviving her campaign and setting the stage for a long duel for the Democratic nomination.

posted March 5, 2008 at 6:49 am EST

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The day offered Clinton a bright spot ahead of another challenging week. Wyoming's Democrats, who caucus on Saturday, vote in the club of red states Obama has dominated. In Mississippi, which votes March 11, more than half the Democratic primary voters are African-American.

Exit polls Tuesday show that nearly 6 in 10 late-deciding voters broke for Clinton, a sign that her increasingly aggressive tactics may be paying off.

Over the past week, she has pressed Obama to answer more questions about his ties to Chicago real-estate developer Tony Rezko, a former fundraiser who went on trial this week on federal corruption charges.

She highlighted reports that an Obama adviser allegedly assured Canadian diplomats that Obama's opposition to NAFTA – the North American Free Trade Agreement that is reviled in Ohio and some other struggling industrial states – was more political tactic than policy position.

And she launched a television ad Feb. 29 featuring sleeping children and asking which candidate voters would rather have answer an emergency phone call at 3 a.m. (Obama is not implicated in the Rezko case, has disputed accounts of his adviser's NAFTA remarks, and has accused Clinton of trying to scare voters with the so-called "red phone" ad.)

"The Clinton campaign believes that not only have they checked Obama's momentum, they've found some themes they can prosecute against him," says Cal Jillson, a political scientist at Southern Methodist University in Dallas. "It will be up to Obama to develop some very credible responses."

Not only did the pillars of her base – white women, older voters, and Hispanics ­– stay loyal Tuesday, but she appeared to put the brakes on Obama's advances among white men. According to exit polls in Ohio, Rhode Island, and Texas, the candidates were splitting independents, a group that typically has favored Obama.

"You know what they say: As Ohio goes, so goes the nation," Clinton told supporters Tuesday night in Columbus. "Well, this nation is coming back, and so is this campaign."

Her margin of victory in Ohio, as in Rhode Island, was convincing: She took 54 percent of the Ohio vote to Obama's 44 percent, and won 58 percent of the vote in Rhode Island versus Obama's 40 percent. The Texas race was nip and tuck, with Clinton at 51 percent and Obama at 47. Obama won big in Vermont, 60 percent to Clinton's 38 percent.

Clinton made clear she intends to savor the moment, booking appearances Wednesday morning on no fewer than six television networks.

She picked up 115 of the 370 pledged delegates in play Tuesday (but nearly half of the total had not yet been allocated as of early Wednesday), according to the Associated Press tally. Still, she remains behind overall, trailing with 1,391 delegates to Obama's 1,477. A candidate needs 2,025 to win the Democratic nomination, and 611 are up for grabs in the 13 remaining contests.

All eyes now turn to Pennsylvania, where Clinton has the endorsement of Gov. Ed Rendell and is expected to do well with the state's many blue-collar voters.

Even more pivotal, say analysts, are the party's 796 superdelegates, who are not bound by the popular vote in their states and could very well decide the nomination. Obama has gained ground among them in recent weeks, but still trails Clinton 199 to 241.

Speaking to supporters in San Antonio before the Texas results were in, Obama played down the significance of the March 4 contests. "No matter what happens tonight," he said, "we have nearly the same delegate lead as we did this morning, and we are on our way to winning this nomination."

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