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Colombia: Latin America tries to defuse escalating crisis

Colombian President Álvaro Uribe said Tuesday that his government would ask the International Criminal Court to try Venezuelan leader Hugo Chávez for financing and supporting Colombia's main rebel group.

from the March 5, 2008 edition

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Ideology behind the tensions

But politics has driven much of the current meltdown. Chávez, who on his Sunday radio program said that it would be a cause for war if Colombia attempted a similar raid on Venezuelan territory, has been criticized for meddling. "The reaction by [Chávez] has been irresponsible in the manner in which he took the incident personally even though it is an issue to resolve between Ecuador and Colombia," says Carlos Romero, a professor of political science at the Central University of Venezuela in Caracas.

Relations between Chávez and Uribe, whom Chávez calls a US pawn, have deteriorated since Chávez attempted to mediate a prisoner swap. Although six hostages have been released to Venezuelan authorities, Chávez was quickly recalled for breaching protocols.

Colombia has been criticized too, for staging the attack without warning Ecuador, and then for the timing of its accusations against Ecuador and Venezuela. "The handling of that evidence has been pretty disastrous," says Gerson Arias, an analyst with the Ideas Para la Paz think tank in Bogotá, adding that Colombia should have held off on presenting the information from the seized computers until the OAS met.

By first apologizing to Ecuador for its incursion into Ecuadorean territory – an apology that Ecuador did not accept – and then revealing the evidence of FARC ties to the media in Bogotá sends "confusing and mixed messages."

Correa said Monday that the strike by Colombia spoiled negotiations his country was pursuing on a hostage swap – putting another dent in bilateral relations. "At the present moment it is very difficult to ease the tension between Colombia and Ecuador," says Adrian Bonilla, a political analyst at the Latin American Faculty of Social Sciences in Quito.

Still, many expect ties between Ecuador and Colombia to improve quickly. "With Venezuela the breach is much greater, the ideological gap," says Mr. DeShazo. "The confrontation is deeper between Venezuela and Colombia than with Ecuador."

The standoff is stoking nationalist sentiment in Ecuador and Colombia, says Mr. Bonilla. "Most of the people in Ecuador are rejecting the behavior of [Uribe], in every social condition, and from every different ideological base," says Mr. Bonilla. "In the case of Colombia many are supporting their government."

The region has become polarized so quickly, in part, because of each country's weak institutions, says Riordan Roett, director of the Latin American Studies Program at Johns Hopkins University's Paul H. Nitze School for Advanced International Studies in Washington.

"The processes that would normally work out these problems don't exist," says Mr. Roett. "What would normally have happened, rather than forcing ambassadors to leave, would be dialogue of foreign ministers and special envoys."

In Bogotá, the mood is somber, following the celebratory atmosphere after Saturday's coup against the FARC. And while most Colombians believe a war with their neighbors is improbable, some have little faith in a diplomatic solution.

Javier Cardenas says things may have gone past the point of diplomacy and fears an armed conflict could break out. "Before, it seemed like something far off and impossible. Now it looks like it's something that's possible and very, very close," he said.

• Daniel Cancel contributed from Caracas.

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