Chaotic Somalia keeps U.S. on terrorism watch

Latest missile strike at the East Africa nation, aimed at a suspected Al Qaeda operative, keeps terrorists off balance. But some say US should do more to nation-build in Somalia.

from the March 5, 2008 edition

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The US has long kept its eye on Somalia as a possible haven for Al Qaeda, according to an International Crisis Group study of counterterrorism in the area. As early as 1998, when the Clinton administration fired cruise missiles at terrorist training camps in Afghanistan, US officials were concerned that Osama bin Laden might turn to Somalia as his next place of refuge, says the ICG study.

The Al Qaeda leadership decamped to the border area between Afghanistan and Pakistan, instead. Still, three extremist groups operating from Somalia "have chalked up a deadly track record," according to ICG.

Perhaps most notorious among them is an Al Qaeda cell made up of Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan and several other militants. This group is thought linked to the embassy bombings, as well as the 2002 bombing of a Kenyan hotel and an unsuccessful attempt to shoot down an Israeli airliner.

The second group is a Somali nationalist and Islamist movement with long-standing links to Al Qaeda named al-Itihaad al-Islaami. During its 1990s heyday, the group had a militia of 1,000 fighters funded by Islamic charities from the Gulf states and maintained training camps staffed by foreign jihadis, says ICG.

The third group has emerged since 2003. It is a small but ruthless militant network led by Aden Hashi Ayro, a relatively young fighter reportedly trained in Al Qaeda's Afghanistan camps.

Lumped together, these organizations have given Somalia a reputation as a hotbed of Islamist extremism. But viewed from the perspective of the larger population, that may not be the case.

"In reality, jihadism is an unpopular, minority trend among Somali Islamists," concluded the ICG report.

This week's missile strike in Somalia was far from a first for the US. It carried out similar attacks at least three times last year.

Though those strikes were not all successful, the general antiterror effort in Somalia is going well, according to US intelligence.

A year or 18 months ago, Al Qaeda was establishing a foothold in Somalia that was on its way to becoming formidable, said Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell at a Feb. 27 Senate Armed Services Committee hearing.

Since the Ethiopian Army rolled into Mogadishu, things have changed, said Director McConnell.

"For the most part, we've been able to keep it tamped down, or on the run. We've traced personalities," he told the Senate panel.

The concern of Karin von Hippel of CSIS and some other analysts is that the focus on personalities and security may distract the US from trying to rebuild the government and promoting higher levels of national reconciliation and reconstruction.

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