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Can Clinton slow Obama-mentum?

She faces heavy pressure in Texas and Ohio primaries.

from the March 4, 2008 edition

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"I think we've seen a tipping point and change in the momentum in the last week; I think that momentum is tipping to Senator Clinton," said strategist Mark Penn.

Polls show Texas in a dead heat and Clinton with a slight lead in Ohio. Texas's unique "two step" system for awarding delegates – first a primary (126 delegates), then a caucus (67 delegates) – may give Obama an advantage in that state. Obama has won nearly all the caucuses so far, a tribute to his campaign's organization. Texas's large Hispanic population works to Clinton's benefit, but the state's system of awarding primary delegates could minimize that advantage. Delegates are awarded according to how many votes a state Senate district gave to Democrats in the past two elections. Because black voters have higher turnout than Hispanic voters, Obama is likely to earn more delegates from his large black support than Clinton is from her Hispanic supporters, even though the Hispanic community is larger.

For Clinton to make serious headway against Obama in the delegate counts, she needs to win Ohio and Texas by convincing margins – say, in the high 50s. If she falls short but stays in the race, analysts say, she will have to weigh potential damage to the party and to her own political future.

But there are growing signs that her core supporters – older women, union voters, low-income voters – are demanding that she hang tough, even if Tuesday's result is not convincing in her favor. All along, the conventional wisdom is that Obama supporters would be less willing to back a Clinton nomination than vice versa. But now that feeling is beginning to change among some Clinton supporters, and in Ohio – a crucial battleground in the general election – there are concerns that some Democrats would not be willing to vote for an African-American in November.

Rarely is that view expressed openly. "There's just something about Obama that makes me uncomfortable," said one woman at a Clinton event in Hanging Rock, Ohio, last week.

Almost regardless of what voters do on Tuesday, some analysts say, the best outcome for Democrats is for their nomination race to end.

"Every day that it lasts after Tuesday is a good day for John McCain," says John Zogby, an independent pollster.

Former Democratic presidential candidate Bill Richardson has not endorsed Clinton or Obama, but he tacitly threw his weight behind Obama Sunday on CBS's "Face the Nation."

"I just think the D-Day is Tuesday," said Governor Richardson of New Mexico. "We have to have a positive campaign after Tuesday. Whoever has the most delegates after Tuesday, a clear lead, should be in my judgment the nominee."

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