Big wins in Wisconsin, Hawaii make it Obama's race to lose

His large margins of victory in Tuesday's contests put Clinton on the ropes.

from the February 21, 2008 edition

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In his own victory speech, Obama also set his sights on McCain more than on Clinton, referring to the Arizona senator and former Vietnam War prisoner by name. "He is a genuine American hero," Obama said to a crowd in Houston. "But when he embraces George Bush's failed economic policies, when he says that he is willing to send our troops into another 100 years of war in Iraq, then he represents the policies of yesterday."

Clinton and her campaign have lashed out at Obama daily, calling attention, for example, to his use of language echoing that of Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick (D), a friend of Obama's. The Clinton campaign calls it plagiarism, but Obama says it was language that Governor Patrick himself had suggested he use. Obama later said he should have credited Patrick for the original statements, which, ironically, centered on the importance of words in a campaign. Clinton, like McCain, has sought to belittle Obama's soaring rhetoric as just pretty language and not an indication of what Obama could actually accomplish.

The Clinton campaign expects the two debates between now and March 4 – one on Thursday in Austin, Texas, and another next Tuesday in Cleveland – to highlight her command of issues and stress her campaign's point that she is the candidate of experience.

But whether the debates could be a game-changer is another matter. Obama has seldom slipped in any of the previous debates and cannot be counted on to make mistakes in the next two. Clinton has to decide how negative she wants to be against Obama – a tactic she has no choice but to follow, analysts say. If she stays positive, she will look as if she's giving up. The danger is that if she is seen as too harsh, she may only drive up her negatives.

Obama inroads among most groups

In addition to Obama's 58 percent to 41 percent victory, exit polls out of Wisconsin also paint an alarming picture for Clinton. Obama won almost every demographic group, beating her soundly among men and tying her 50-50 among women. Obama won every income category, every level of education, every region of the state, and every ideological group. A few groups chose Clinton, including voters over age 65, Roman Catholics who attend church weekly, and those who rated "experience" as the top candidate quality. Clinton won that last group 95 percent to 5 percent. But only 22 percent of Democratic voters chose experience as paramount.

"Can bring change" was the most sought-after quality, and Obama won that category with 77 percent, according to the Wisconsin exit polls. Obama was also deemed more qualified than Clinton to be commander in chief, 51 percent to 47 percent, a sign that he's looking more presidential to voters every day.

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