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Clinton-Obama: perils of a long Democratic battle

A duel that goes for months weakens the winner. Right?

from the February 11, 2008 edition

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"Right now, the traditional Democratic coalition is split exactly between them," says Gerald Gamm, an associate professor of political science and history at the University of Rochester in New York.

While that situation may be exciting for the media, it isn't thrilling all party leaders. Some have said they'll do all they can to head off the prospect of a brokered convention.

"The idea that we can afford to have a big fight at the convention and then win the race in the next eight weeks, I think, is not a good scenario," said Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean in a Feb. 6 broadcast interview.

But no one should be too quick to assume that McCain is now in a better strategic position than the eventual Democratic nominee, say some analysts.

For one thing, he is likely to fade from public view as media and voter attention focus on the Democrats' continuing competition. For another, he won't know who his opponent will be – and thus may have to plot two different approaches to the fall campaign.

And that might be difficult, given the candidates' different styles and political strengths and weaknesses.

"A campaign against Clinton would be entirely different than a campaign against Obama," says Allan Lichtman, a political historian at American University in Washington.

Historical evidence shows that an intramural challenge to a sitting president running for reelection can be poison – but that a fight within a challenging party makes little difference, says Professor Lichtman. In 1932, it took Franklin D. Roosevelt four ballots to win the Democratic nomination. He then crushed incumbent President Herbert Hoover in the general election.

In 1960, JFK battled LBJ in a bitter preconvention season – yet Kennedy eked out a win over Vice President Richard Nixon in the fall. And in 1952, war hero Dwight Eisenhower's contest with Sen. Robert Taft of Ohio for the GOP nod wasn't settled until the convention. Yet he won an easy victory over the Democratic nominee, Gov. Adlai Stevenson of Illinois.

The liberal Stevenson, a gifted orator, never truly unified the Democrats behind him. The party's conservative wing remained unenthusiastic about his candidacy.

"My advice to McCain is, don't get complacent," says Lichtman.

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