On U.S. economy, voter concern runs deep

Polls show long-term economic health occupies minds as much as a looming slump.

from the February 6, 2008 edition

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"Folks that do not have enough education and expertise in an area are harder to fit in somewhere," she says.

She's also looking cautiously at her own short-term situation.

Amid news about the economy slowing, "you always have that feeling in your gut that I need to make as much money as I can now because I don't know what the rest of the year is going to look like."

With all this on her mind, she says "Democrats need a shot" in the White House after eight years of Republican control.

That sentiment – going against the incumbent party – is common during economic downturns.

Voters' darkening view has been affecting the tone of the presidential election campaign in recent weeks. And come fall, it poses a special challenge for the Republican nominee, analysts say.

In Cambridge, Mass., Robert Heywood says he's more concerned about the short-term health of the economy, not the long run. "Prices are outrageous," he says, comparing his grocery costs with those he faced in Baltimore a few years ago.

But he worries that today's youths, including fellow African-Americans, won't be able to do better economically than their parents.

"When I was growing up, I had way more to look forward to," says Mr. Heywood, who now lives on disability insurance. "We need to get change going. I'm tired of the same old same old – and I don't care if it's a Republican or a Democrat."

The penchant for "change," shared by many voters, reflects more than just economic issues.

But the financial worries have been piling up. In a USA Today/Gallup poll released Tuesday, half of Americans say they worry they won't be able to maintain their standard of living.

Large numbers say they've been affected by the movement of jobs overseas, by problems in the housing market, by stock market declines, and by rising prices for college, healthcare, and energy.

Still, America's economic mood falls short of all-out pessimism. It's notable that the presidential candidate who arguably most emphasized Americans' economic anxieties, John Edwards, recently dropped out of the running.

One reason: The unemployment rate, while edging up in recent months, remains relatively low. Sizable majorities are satisfied with their jobs and believe their own circumstances will improve.

"It's hard to disentangle" long-term anxieties from short-term ones," says Scott Keeter, Pew's director of research.

Rising gasoline prices are an immediate concern, he says. Yet he says people also see "larger forces at work than just a single bogeyman like 'it's the oil companies' or … the sheikhs in the Middle East."

Al Cramer, a self-employed software engineer in Cambridge, says he's most concerned with long-term issues even though short-term ones seem "pressing."

"It's the middle class and the working class who are worse off now," he says. The economy is "going to help those candidates calling for change rather than the establishment."

• Alison Tully in Los Angeles and Sarah McCann in Cambridge, Mass., contributed to this article.

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