Divided, Thailand eyes ruling party's first steps

The majority coalition is expected to name a controversial prime minister.

from the January 25, 2008 edition

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Mr. Samak, a political warhorse, brings his own baggage to the table. He served in right-wing military governments during bloody repressions of students and street protestors in 1976 and 1992. More recently he has sparred with the local media, earning him the epithet "Dog Mouth." Samak has also locked horns with Prem Tinsulanonda, the chief adviser to King Bhumibol Adulyadej and a prime mover behind the coup, according to pro-Thaksin politicians. After the election win, he claimed that a "hidden hand" was trying to stop his party from taking office, a comment seen as a rebuke to Mr. Prem.

Analysts say Samak may be a short-lived premier. He faces an outstanding corruption probe into procurement contracts during his term as Bangkok governor.

Attention is now turning to how the PPP balances its political supremacy with public expectations of a credible cabinet, particularly in economic jobs. Having won the elections by campaigning as populists in the rural heartland, the party needs to win over skeptics in business circles in Bangkok, where the opposition polled strongly, says James Klein, country director of the Asia Foundation. "Samak can afford to antagonize the media, but not the business community," he says.

One wild card is the response of social activists who organized mass rallies against Thaksin in 2006 and are opposed to his return. Activists fear they'll be singled out for revenge. But massing crowds on the same scale may prove difficult, say analysts. It would also expose the rift between the rural electorate that backed Thaksin and the urban elites who resented his economic handouts to the poor, a rift that the military cited as a justification for its takeover but did little to mend.

Lost in the debate over the shape of a PPP-led cabinet is the security situation in southern Thailand, where fighting between Muslim separatists and security forces has cost 2,800 lives since 2004. Observers warn that the violence is increasing, leaving a pressing challenge for the next government.

Last week, eight Thai soldiers died when their vehicle was hit by a roadside bomb and fired on by militants. This and other daytime attacks are possible because local Muslims aren't willing to inform on the militants to Thai security forces, says Sunai Pasuk, a researcher for Human Rights Watch who monitors the conflict. "Soldiers are no longer seen as protectors or guardians. They're seen as abusers," he says.

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