Renewed impetus to sanction Iran

Security Council members, plus Germany, agree Tuesday on the outline of a third UN resolution.

from the January 24, 2008 edition

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"What the NIE suggests is that the Iranians make their decisions, including on their nuclear program, on a cost-benefit basis, and that international pressure on them can have an impact," Mr. Jacobson says. The NIE concluded that Iran ceased its nuclear weapons program in 2003 as a result of international scrutiny and pressure.

The most effective action would be to set up an independent monitoring team, as the UN has done in other cases of sanctions, including those against Sudan and Somalia, Jacobson says. Until now, reporting on Iran's compliance with approved sanctions has been carried out by individual countries and has not been mandatory in all cases.

The reinvigorated drive for a third resolution comes amid confusion caused by a report from the Government Accountability Office that says 20 years of US sanctions against Iran have been largely useless. Some experts strongly disagree with the report's findings, saying more recent sanctions that have specifically targeted Iranian institutions and individuals have had an impact on the country's actions.

In any case, Jacobson says a third resolution would be useful as a signal to Iran of continuing international vigilance and unity. "It still sends a symbolic message to Iran, particularly with Russia and China joining in. And it's better than the alternative," he adds, "that Iran sees the Security Council is paralyzed and unable to move forward."

In addition, the Security Council may prompt more dogged action on its sanctions simply by passing a third resolution and demonstrating determination, Jacobson says. He notes that efforts within the European Union to toughen sanctions on Iran have been held up by some countries, such as Germany, that were waiting to see what the Security Council would do.

Indeed, one senior European official says that Germany in particular had been reluctant to press ahead on new sanctions – but had felt ready to move forward after the NIE. The report "has helped Germany to go along with a resolution, and not just the Germans," says the official, who requested anonymity to discuss internal diplomatic talks. The official says that, in the end, the new resolution may not pass until well into February – and even then may be only a "clear political statement, [but] you must admit the Iranians don't like that very much."

Iranian officials may be particularly sensitive to any sign of new international pressures, as the country is to hold parliamentary elections in March.

Experts say there is no guarantee of how another resolution would be received by the Iranian public, with the country's conservative leadership expected to play the us-versus-the-world card. But the European official says the hope among Western powers, at least, would be to "help Iran's moderates make their case" that the country's "radicals" are isolating Iran.

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