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In Nevada, a first test of Latinos' leanings in '08 race

The immigration debate has rattled many and may tip them toward the Democrats. But which one?

from the January 17, 2008 edition

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Polling of Nevada's Latinos back in July by the University of Washington found Clinton far ahead of Obama, who had low name recognition. Such early polls came before Nevadans really engaged in the race, says an Obama spokesperson, who adds that the campaign targeted its outreach to those Latinos most likely to vote.

After a Democratic debate Tuesday night in Las Vegas, which had been billed as focusing on minority issues, Latino leaders – and some candidates – expressed frustration that only cursory attention was paid to topics important to minority groups, such as jobs, education, and immigration.

John Edwards fielded the one question on immigration, outlining reform policies that all three candidates espouse and agreeing that learning English ought to be part of any path to citizenship.

"It's difficult to know at this point what the differences are in their immigration proposals," says Matt Barreto, a political scientist at the University of Washington, who watched the debate on television. "The Democrats don't want to get into the details of their immigration plan for fear it will backfire with other segments of the electorate."

Clinton has risked negative attention at times in an effort to side with Latino voters, particularly during her initial support for driver's licenses for undocumented immigrants, as well as her repudiation of the term "illegals" when she said recently, "no woman is illegal."

At a town-hall meeting Sunday in Pahrump, Nev., Obama fielded a pointed question on immigration. He argued for beefing up border security and cracking down on employers who hire undocumented workers – drawing applause. He then drew cheers from different people when he discounted the idea of deporting all illegal immigrants.

One Republican candidate likely to interest many Latino voters is Sen. John McCain of Arizona, an architect of last year's failed bid in Congress to enact an immigration reform bill – which included a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants already in the US. Latinos may not be able to help him win the GOP nomination, because they aren't a big enough share of Republican voters to sway the primary outcomes, but he may attract Hispanic support in the general election if he becomes the GOP nominee.

"If McCain is the nominee, that could scramble that whole equation," says Mr. Suro.

The only Republican to devote much time in Nevada ahead of Tuesday's Michigan primary was Ron Paul, who has gained some traction here on immigration. He hosted a meeting in Las Vegas Tuesday on the topic, and his hard-line stance against birthright citizenship cheered the crowd.

Dr. Paul rejects the idea that the Republican Party stands to lose ground among Hispanics. "We just heard from some Hispanics in this crowd, and they are very much with us on this," he says.

Cassandra O'Nell, a Hispanic who came to see Paul, wants tougher government action on illegal immigration. "There is a lot of animosity now toward people of Hispanic heritage, and I think a lot of that is caused by the government refusing to enforce the [immigration] laws," she says.

Her view may not represent the majority position in the Latino community, however. Republicans will be disappointed if they hope to segment Latino citizens from noncitizen immigrants, says Segura, given Latino citizens' close – often familial – relationships with newcomers.

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