A rift over U.S. troop cuts in Iraq

While General Petraeus is in no hurry for more than five brigades to leave, Secretary Gates weighs a bigger drawdown.

from the January 17, 2008 edition

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Petraeus is mindful of the strain on US forces, but he doesn't want to jeopardize the success he's orchestrated on the ground in Iraq, says a senior American officer in Baghdad.

"There are of course many that would like to speed up the process to include those that are currently in Iraq," says the official in an e-mail. "However, with that said, there is no desire to rush to failure and to give up the gains that have been made and in many cases with the blood of our fallen and those that have been grievously wounded."

Secretary Gates, meanwhile, who agreed to take the top job in the Pentagon more than a year ago, entered the fray with what many believed was a pragmatic view of the ability of US forces to sustain operations in Iraq. Gates has said in recent months that he would like to see the force in Iraq be cut to as few as 100,000 by December. He has since backed off using that number, but he still hopes to cut as many forces in the second half of 2008 as are expected to be cut in the first half.

"We obviously want to sustain the gains that we have already made," he said last month. "If we were to continue the withdrawals at the level of the first half of the year, if the conditions permitted that, then that would bring us down by the end of the administration to about 10 brigade combat teams." Currently, 19 brigades are in Iraq.

Gen. George Casey, the Army's chief of staff, has said repeatedly over the past few months that while security is important in Iraq, the Army is deploying at "unsustainable rates" and that soon the Army has to lower the rate of deployments.

But some think it's unlikely that a drawdown of forces beyond the five brigades will occur while Bush is still in office. The primary interest of the president and Petraeus is to ensure that security continues to improve as the Iraqis prepare to assume more responsibility for their country, sources say.

"I believe that [a reduction below] 15 brigades isn't going to happen during this administration," says another senior uniformed official.

Speaking to reporters this weekend in Kuwait at a separate news conference, Bush himself appeared to give Petraeus license to keep as many forces in Iraq as he needed. "My attitude is, if he didn't want to continue the drawdown, that's fine with me, see," Bush said at Camp Arifjan, a sprawling US base there.

Many in and outside the Pentagon believe time will tell if security gains will lead to more troop withdrawals. The question is when, says the first quoted official. "This is a very tedious balance right now in Iraq."

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