As Clinton and McCain rebound in N.H., races are wide open

On the Democratic side, a potentially historic clash lies ahead. For the GOP, Michigan is the next test.

By Linda Feldmann and Ariel Sabar | Staff writers of The Christian Science Monitor

from the January 10, 2008 edition

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WASHINGTON; and CONCORD, N.H. - Hillary Rodham Clinton and John McCain are hardly kids, but their comebacks in the New Hampshire primary mean the race for the presidential nominations, in both parties, is wide open.

Senator Clinton defied the polls and edged out Sen. Barack Obama with the help of women voters, roaring back from defeat in Iowa and setting up an intraparty battle of historic proportions – pitting the first viable woman and African-American against each other for their party's nomination. Both well-funded and well-organized, Clinton and Senator Obama represent a clash between a seasoned, establishment-backed Washington insider and a youthful, charismatic outsider whose campaign has morphed into a movement.

In the Republican race, Senator McCain surged ahead of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in a state that had endorsed his straight-shooting style in the 2000 primary. Left for politically dead just a few months ago, McCain now becomes a top contender for his party's nomination in a still-crowded GOP field.

The next showdown, Jan. 15 in Michigan, could be decisive for Mr. Romney. If he loses again – this time in his native state – his campaign is probably over. Also still in the hunt are Iowa's GOP winner, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee; former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, who begins to compete for real in the Jan. 29 Florida primary; and former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee, who is banking on the Jan. 19 South Carolina primary.

"There are no front-runners in either party," says Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia in Charlottesville. "We all need to be patient and stop doing what comes naturally to media and pundits, trying to pull the curtain down before the play is finished."

Why the polls missed the mark

The day after New Hampshire, the big question was, what happened to Obama's lead over Clinton in the primary-eve polls – in some cases as big as 13 points? Mr. Sabato attributes the gap to "racial voting," the well-documented phenomenon in which voters tell pollsters they will vote for the black candidate, when in fact they will not. In this case, the exit poll showed Obama up by 5 points, but he ended up losing, 39 percent to 36 percent, with 99 percent of the vote counted.

Analysts also surmised that Clinton may have helped herself when she teared up at a campaign event on Monday – a display of emotion that got massive media attention and that may have helped counter her image as stoic and steely. Clinton and her husband, the former president, also may have helped her cause by arguing that she can be every much the "change agent" that Obama can – and that she is better equipped to deliver, given her more extensive experience.

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Comeback kids: Senator McCain becomes a top contender for his party's nomination after winning the New Hampshire Republican primary in a still-crowded GOP field. Charles Krupa/ap