 |
| Hope ahead? In December, a Palestinian walks past a section of the wall in Jerusalem erected to protect Israelis from suicide
bombers. Sebastian Scheiner/AP |
Global flash points: How to spot signs of peace
Monitor correspondents and experts suggest what to watch for in eight international conflicts.
from the January 3, 2008 edition
Page 2 of 3
IRAN
THE CRUX: The main conflict between the West and Iran is its nuclear-energy program, which the US has criticized as a cover for developing weapons. Washington has also accused Tehran of backing Hizbullah in Lebanon and destabilizing Iraq. There are also tensions between an increasingly powerful Shiite Iran and the Sunni Persian Gulf states.
THE STATUS: The US released a new National Intelligence Estimate in December concluding that Iran halted a weapons program in 2003 – reversing previous assessments and lowering expectations for an air strike. Iran's relations with Sunni Arab neighbors have also improved, with President Ahmadinejad receiving the first-ever official invitation to take part in the Hajj pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia last month.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR:
• More diplomatic tug-of-war over Iran's program, including a stronger push for more UN sanctions. Also, Iran's first-ever nuclear power plant at Bushehr, built by Russia, is due to begin operation.
• Better relations with Iran and its Sunni Arab neighbors, crucial for stability of the Gulf region.
• Iran's influence in Iraq. Three US-Iranian meetings have been held at the ambassadorial level in Baghdad to discuss Iraqi security. Iranian officials want to expand the talks to other issues that have divided the two countries.
KOSOVO
THE CRUX: Ethnically distinct from the rest of Serbia with a 90 percent Albanian majority, the tiny province seeks independence. Serbs, however, see Kosovo as the cradle of their civilization, and insist it remain part of their country.
THE STATUS: An 18-month United Nations process to reach an agreement between Serbs and Kosovars ended in December. Kosovo leaders are expected to declare independence after Serbia's Jan. 20 elections.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR:
• Russia's position. As a veto-wielding member of the UN Security Council and supporter of Serbia, it could prevent the West from gaining international consensus for Kosovo's independence. If Kosovo proceeds unilaterally with Western support, Russia may use that precedent to back separatist forces in Georgia's breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
• Serbian elections, which will reflect public opinion on the Kosovo issue.
• Kosovo declaration of independence. Serbia has promised to refrain from violence, but hard-line militias may take action themselves. It will also be an early test of Kosovo leaders, some of whom were former members of the guerrilla Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA).
RSS feed
