What trends are likely to garner media attention in 2008? Prognostication is a risky business – ask any economist. But Monitor editors and reporters have come up with eight global themes – including the outlook for oil prices, national and international leadership changes, and where peace might break out this year – for readers to keep an eye on.
PART 2   ( Read the full series )
Tracking Iowa:  Media from around the world are following the US presidential campaigns, including the quest for votes in the early caucus and primary states.
Tracking Iowa: Media from around the world are following the US presidential campaigns, including the quest for votes in the early caucus and primary states.
Andy Nelson – staff/FILE
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  • Tracking Iowa:  Media from around the world are following the US presidential campaigns, including the quest for votes in the early caucus and primary states.
  • Votes: A serviceman of Russia's Black Sea fleet casts his ballot in Russia's parliamentary election. In Russia, presidential elections will likely yield a different president but the same leader, since the new president will not be likely to deviate from Vladimir Putin's policies.
  • Uncertain elections: Pakistani men chant and weep under a portrait of Benazir Bhutto, assassinated while campaigning to be prime minister. Pakistan's parliamentary election will produce a new prime minister, but still leave the strongman Pervez Musharraf as president, backed by the Army.
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Global elections watch: All eyes on U.S. race

Who would foreigners like to see at the helm of the world's superpower – a Republican or Democrat?

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Pakistan, Russia, and Zimbabwe are holding elections this year. Cuba's Fidel Castro is talking about retirement. But few leadership changes in 2008 will be as closely watched as the US election. Who Americans want in the Oval Office won't be known until November. Yet from Mexico to Iraq, people are already forming views about who they'd like to see at the helm of the world's only superpower, says correspondent Mark Rice-Oxley in London. A Monitor survey found opinion divided, and often counterintuitive.

Would you prefer a Democrat or a Republican as the next US president?

Liberals don't necessarily support a Democrat, nor do conservatives necessarily want a Republican. Many people interviewed outside the US said it was time for a change. But some felt that having Democrats in both the White House and Congress could hurt global trade.

"From a Chinese perspective, most people would prefer the Republicans to the Democrats because the Republicans have taken a more liberal approach to trade disputes with China," says Shi Yinhong, head of the American Research Center at Renmin University in Beijing.

"Democrats are a little more protectionist ... and take more of a human rights position," he says.

In Britain, people "like the idea of a woman president or the first black president," says Denis MacShane, a British Labour member of parliament. But he agrees that Britain and Europe were wary of Democrats' protectionist credentials. "Having a Democrat in the White House is not a guarantee that policy on economic, trade and other issues will not be hostile to British and European interests," he says.

While many were critical of President George Bush's foreign-policy "mistakes," others focused on positive steps. Priscilla Maphumulu, a South African optometrist, says that the US administration's commitments to helping tackle the AIDS crisis predispose her toward the Republicans.

In 2003, Mr. Bush committed to spending $15 billion to fighting AIDS over five years, and much of it was directed to Africa. In 2007, he pledged to double that figure over the next five years.

"I think no other administration has given so much assistance to this problem before," Ms. Maphumulu says. "This is what has to do with my life. I don't know about Iraq and other policies, but that is not as important to me. So, I am happy for the Republicans to win."

Which policy would you most like the next US president to change?

Everyone interviewed responded similarly: America needs to act less unilaterally, to build solutions via consensus rather than imposing them. They want the next president to respect that every country has its own culture and approaches, which may not adapt well to prescriptions cooked up in Washington.

"Democrat or Republican, I do not care," says Fakhri Karim, a Baghdad newspaper owner and book publisher. "I just prefer a US president that would balance US interests with those of other nations.... The United States must construct its foreign policies based on local knowledge and not based on what advisers come up with at the Pentagon or in the State Department as they did in Iraq."

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