Joan Tucker is down to five possible candidates. She's ruled out Hillary Rodham Clinton – "She has less opportunity to win" because of her negatives – but when Ms. Tucker attends her local Democratic caucus this Thursday, she's open to backing Barack Obama, Bill Richardson, Joseph Biden, Christopher Dodd, or John Edwards.

"Usually I know long in advance who I'm supporting," says Ms. Tucker, a retired librarian from Iowa City waiting in a packed junior high gymnasium for Senator Obama to appear. But this time, "there are just too many good choices."

Tucker is hardly alone in her indecision. Three days before the Iowa caucuses, the first nomination test of the 2008 presidential campaign, polls show more than 1 in 5 likely caucusgoers of both parties is either undecided or could change from their current choice.

With both parties' Iowa contests too close to call, these voters may well hold the key to the outcome. The candidates know that. Most are crisscrossing the state in a frenzy of final pleadings, hopefulthat they'll hit a sweet spot with enough undecideds to propel themselves into the Jan. 8 New Hampshire primary in a strong position.

"It's been decades since we've had this wide open a race," says Dianne Bystrom, a political scientist at Iowa State University in Ames.

On the Republican side, 11 percent of likely Iowa caucusgoers are undecided, with another 10 percent "soft" in support of a candidate, according to a poll by the American Research Group (ARG) taken Dec. 26-28. Among Democrats, 7 percent of likely caucusgoers are undecided, and 14 percent are soft supporters.

Dick Bennett, president of ARG, says this level of indecision so close to caucus day is typical. Voters who attend caucuses – which involve more effort than just casting a ballot – are not casual observers of politics. They read, they attend rallies, they weigh their choices. What's atypical is that the undecideds are not dominated by women this time.

"The difference is, women have decided for Hillary Clinton," says Mr. Bennett, who notes that 63 percent of the New York senator's supporters in Iowa are female. The bad news for Senator Clinton, he adds, is that the undecideds tend to be choosing between Senator Obama and former Senator Edwards.

The average of major polls in Iowa taken between Dec. 20 and 28, as tabulated by Realclearpolitics.com, shows a three-way tie in the Democratic field – with Clinton at 29.8 percent, Edwards at 26.5 percent, and Obama at 26.3 percent.

As for the Republicans, the Realclearpolitics.com average shows former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (30.5 percent) and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (28.5) in a statistical tie for the lead. Duking it out for third place are former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee (10.8 percent) and Sen. John McCain of Arizona (10.3 percent).

In interviews with undecided voters at several campaign events around Iowa in the past few days, the Monitor found people eager to make the right choice – that is, someone who is both right for the times and who can win next November.

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