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| Narendra Modi (r.), portraying himself as the trustworthy steward of economic growth, on Tuesday celebrated his reelection
as the leader of prosperous Gujarat. Amit Dave/Reuters |
In Gujarat, India, Modi wins rare third term
A controversial Indian politician was reelected Tuesday – this time by stressing his economic track record, not sectarian politics.
from the December 27, 2007 edition
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The demographics and character of Gujarat make it particularly susceptible to religion-baiting, experts say. Hindu-Muslim tensions in Gujarat are perhaps greater than in any other part of India, yet the relatively small Muslim population – about 8 percent – means they can be ignored politically. That is not true in other major states, where politicians have to take account of the Muslim vote.
Moreover, India is enjoying a period of relative communal calm – due in large part to the horrors of the 2002 riots and a desire not to see them repeated. Such sectarianism still strikes a dissonant chord at the moment.
"There's no way you could play the communal card the way it was played in Gujarat," says Rajeev Bhargava, a political scientist at Jawaharlal Nehru University. "These conditions are not present in the rest of the country."
The early analysis from this election, however, suggests that it was Modi's talk of economic development – not his sectarian rhetoric – that carried the day. In the areas most motivated by Hindu-Muslim tensions – the areas that propelled Modi to victory in 2002 – Modi's BJP actually lost 20 seats. However, in other areas, where development and leadership were likely to play a bigger role, he gained 10 seats.
"The last election in 2002 was to a large extent communal," says G.V.L. Narasima Rao, a political analyst at Development and Research Services, a strategic consultancy in New Delhi. "What pulled voters this time was credible leadership."
Religion, caste usual vote-getters
In a country where political power is most often achieved and maintained by doling out sops to the castes and classes connected with each candidate, the notion of building an impartial record on which to run is revolutionary.
Yet, again, Gujarat's peculiar demographics played a key role. As one of the most prosperous states – since long before Modi arrived – Gujarat is more urbanized and middle class than other Indian states. So while politics elsewhere is dominated by basic issues of poverty, in Gujarat "the middle class has reached a critical mass that will vote for things like good governance," says Mr. Deshmukh.
It is unclear whether the rest of India has reached this critical mass yet. The most recent general elections in 2004 suggest not. The BJP was replaced by Ms. Gandhi's Congress Party, which stressed the need to spread India's wealth to the poor.
But statistics suggest that other states are urbanizing and the middle class is growing. In that way, Gujarat could be a glimpse of the future.
"If you have a good leader and a good agenda, people will back you," says Mr. Rao. "This is a very good message."
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