War strain in Iraq may speed troop cuts

To ease the Army's burden, Gates said Friday he hopes 10 brigades could leave Iraq by the end of 2008.

from the December 24, 2007 edition

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"If we can reduce the frequency and length of deployments to Iraq, and therefore let some of this air out of the balloon, in the short term you may restore a degree of morale and optimism and sustain readiness and recruiting in ways that can help," he says.

Critics of the war have been saying the Army is at or near its breaking point for years, yet few believe it's actually happened. One of their concerns is that the strain of multiple deployments will discourage good individuals from joining the Army – or "re-upping" and staying in.

Barry McCaffrey, a retired Army general who works as a consultant and makes frequent trips to Iraq, returned in mid-December from a week-long trip to Iraq and Kuwait. He was critical of the execution of the war under Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld but sees positive signs now, despite strains on the force. He has repeatedly called for a larger Army, which he says should be 800,000-strong.

The Army is expected to grow to 547,000 soldiers by 2010, and Casey has left the door open for an even bigger increase beyond that. But time is running short for the Army now, Mr. McCaffrey says. "We can probably sustain a force in Iraq indefinitely (given adequate funding) of some 10-plus brigades," McCaffrey wrote in a post-trip report. "However, the US Army is starting to unravel."

The Marine Corps, the other ground service largely engaged in Iraq, is smaller and has been able to manage the war's impact differently. Its recruiting and retention has remained strong without falling short of its standards so far.

While there is reasonable consensus that a significant drawdown must occur to relieve the Army – from Gates to Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, to the service chiefs and many combatant commanders – Petraeus may not see things the same way. An expert in counterinsurgency, Petraeus believes such campaigns can last a decade or more if done right. While he is mindful of the strains on the force, he is considered to be more focused on maintaining the security momentum there, analysts say.

Casey insists the Army is not "hollow" or "broken" – terms often used by concerned observers – but "out of balance." In his remarks at Brookings earlier this month, he said there is an almost indiscernible line. "There's a thin red line out there that you don't know when you cross it until after you've crossed it," he said.

But Casey may be willing to go only so far in publicly acknowledging the problem, says the retired general. "Brutal honesty," he says, about the true morale within the Army and the challenges the institution faces could actually create a bigger problem within the ranks as officers and enlisted soldiers become discouraged, and even more could get out. It would become a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy, according to the retired general.

Still, Casey is "doing all the right things," he says. "He is sticking his neck out and forcing people to think about the problem."

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