Tensions rise as Thais head to polls

On Sunday, supporters of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra are expected to win a majority in the first parliamentary elections since last September's military coup.

from the December 21, 2007 edition

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A tough sell for Democrat Party

Without an absolute majority, the PPP will probably be shut out, as other parties will come under pressure from the military to form a government. "Even though the PPP may get the largest numbers of seats, they won't be able to form a coalition because the other parties won't join them," says Nidhi Eoseewong, a retired historian.

That outcome would favor the Democrat Party, which lost its majority in 2001 to Thai Rak Thai, the party led by Thaksin that was dissolved in May. Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva has promised to reverse the nationalist initiatives of the interim military government, including curbs on foreign investment and a controversial capital-controls tax.

Analysts say a Democrat-led coalition may prove short-lived due to stiff opposition from the PPP, as well as competing demands from its allies. During the 1980s and 1990s, Thailand endured a revolving door of coalition administrations that never completed their terms, relegating economic planning to short-term fixes that evaporated in a 1997-98 financial meltdown.

"The pressure from people close to Thaksin won't ease at all, and the Democrat government will be coming in as the head of a fractious coalition which is hard to manage," says Michael Montesano, professor of Southeast Asian studies at the National University of Singapore.

On the campaign trail last week, Mr. Abhisit, a British-educated career politician, insisted that coalition governments can perform well, provided party leaders stick to agreed policies. He said Thaksin was welcome to return after the election, but he would have to first face criminal charges filed against him in a Bangkok court over a 2003 land deal.

As his van raced between brief stops at outdoor markets, Abhisit played down the threat of further intervention by the military. He pointed to the poor performance of its handpicked government that steadily lost support. "The military has learned a lesson this last year. It knows that it's easy to seize power, but it's harder to hold onto power," he says.

However, the current administration's failure to revive the economy, together with its shrill propaganda aimed at discrediting Thaksin and his legacy, may have inadvertently played into the hands of its foes. Far from being neutral, coup leader Gen. Sondhi Boonyaratglin (ret.) has lectured voters to elect "good people loyal to the king," a dig at Thaksin, whom he accused last year of disrespecting the crown – a very serious allegation in Thailand.

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