Tensions rise as Thais head to polls

On Sunday, supporters of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra are expected to win a majority in the first parliamentary elections since last September's military coup.

By Simon Montlake | Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor

from the December 21, 2007 edition

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Bangkok, Thailand - Thai voters go to the polls Sunday in the first elections to be held since a bloodless military takeover last year. But the final results may not be to the generals' liking, dimming the prospect for a smooth hand over of power and an end to a protracted political crisis.

Election officials expect a large turnout after nearly 3 million out of 45 million eligible voters cast advance or absentee ballots last weekend. The elections are the first to be run under a new military-backed Constitution, Thailand's 18th since the end of absolute monarchy in 1932. Politicians have already vowed to amend the 2007 Constitution, which gives judges, bureaucrats, and generals immense powers to keep elected governments in check.

In recent weeks, tensions have risen over the strong showing of the People's Power Party (PPP), which is openly loyal to former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Polling is illegal during the final week of campaigning, but previous polls indicated that the PPP may win as many as half of the 480 seats in parliament, well ahead of the second-place Democrat Party.

Whoever takes office will face the challenge of restoring confidence in an economy that has slipped behind competitors like Vietnam and Malaysia in terms of growth. A grinding separatist insurgency in southern Thailand has killed over 2,600 since 2004 and deepened the Muslim majority's mistrust of the Thai government. Perhaps the thorniest task is to mend the social divisions exposed by the backlash to Thaksin and his brand of economic populism that was seen as a threat to traditional elites.

Analysts say the gap between the coup leaders' claim to be saving the nation from ruin and the economic hardship felt by many in the countryside during their rule is a powerful recruiting tool. Among PPP activists, a constant message is the unfair treatment of Thaksin at the hands of generals who they say are less than competent.

"The best bet is the major effect of this coup on the electorate will be to give a martyred image to Thaksin and the party to which he is now associated, and therefore possibly even increase their standing at the polls," says Chris Baker, coauthor of a critical biography on Thaksin.

Worries of another military coup

An outright victory for the PPP would be an affront to the military, which ousted Mr. Thaksin in a royally sanctioned coup last September, but has failed to erase his popularity among the rural masses. On the campaign trail, PPP leaders have promised to restore Thaksin's policies and to bring him back to Thailand from exile in the UK. For their part, anti-Thaksin campaigners who put tens of thousands onto the streets last year say they would mobilize again if he were to return.

Such rhetoric has fed speculation of an imminent coup to prevent the PPP from taking office if they sweep the polls. Army chief General Anupong Paochinda has ruled out a postelection coup, though, and analysts say a more likely tactic is a legal challenge to the PPP's victory, such as the mass disqualification of candidates for vote-buying or other illegal acts.

Surapong Suebwonglee, secretary-general of the PPP, says it's time for the military to let politicians go back to work. "If there's another military coup, I don't think that people will be giving flowers to the soldiers," he says.

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