The one-word answer to sky-high oil prices

Iraq has the third-largest oil reserves in the world – if its government could agree on how to share oil revenues.

from the December 17, 2007 edition

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Iraq's "very old oil system" was "grossly overproduced during Saddam's clever gaming of the 'oil for food' era," notes Matthew Simmons, head of Sim­mons & Co. International, an energy financing firm in Houston, in an e-mail. Without foreign investment, "I worry that Iraq will struggle to keep production above 1.5 m.b.p.d. over the long term."

Moreover, there is much opposition in the Iraqi parliament to production-sharing agreements with Western oil companies. These deals generally provide that new oil production is shared between the government and the oil companies, with the government getting between 60 and 80 percent. The bulk of early output would pay off the cost of discovery and production of the new oil.

Pragmatists tend to favor production­-sharing deals that bring in large foreign investments. Nationalists fear that the Iraqi government, relying heavily on American and British forces for its protection from insurgents, will give away the resources too cheaply. Thus they tend to favor service contracts to help develop old and new fields.

"Nationalism and sectarianism will make it hard for international oil companies to invest heavily in Iraq," writes A.F. Alhajji in an e-mail from Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. "Both are high during and after occupation." Dr. Alhajji teaches at Ohio Northern University's business school.

Iraq kicked out the international oil companies in the early 1970s, and its own nationalized oil company soon took over. So the oil majors will require "some guarantee of stability" before returning to Iraq, says David Kirsch, manager of market intelligence at PFC Energy, a consulting firm in Washington. He doubts if they will make deals on the basis of the Hussein-era legislation. Nonetheless, he adds: "International oil companies cannot afford not to be interested in Iraq." The nation offers the largest potential oil reserves known today. It is "low-hanging fruit."

Lando's website, Iraqoilreport.com, lists major oil companies and the specific Iraq fields they are looking at. They are, he says, looking for a "foot in the door."

The new oil law is tied up in the complex sectarian politics of Iraq. "Control of oil revenues is political control," says Mr. Kirsch.

Iraqi legislators cannot agree on the degree of autonomy for Sunni, Shiite, and Kurdish regions in a federal nation. Nor on how oil revenues are to be shared. "They are tip-toeing through a minefield," says Drollas.

But whereas big oil revenues have been disruptive in some developing nations, Drollas sees oil as the glue holding Iraq together. Iraq's future is bright, he adds, if the Iraqi factions realize there is enough oil "for everyone."

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