Egypt and Saudi Arabia make new overtures to Iran

Are US Arab allies playing 'good cop' with Ahmadinejad to US 'bad cop'?

from the December 14, 2007 edition

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"Notwithstanding the latest elements, everyone is fully conscious of the fact that there is a will among the Iranian leaders to obtain nuclear weapons," said French President Nicolas Sarkozy Thursday, adding that he hopes for new sanctions against Iran. "Why should we renounce sanctions.... What made Iran budge so far has been sanctions and firmness."

Even some noted American hawks are saying the sanctions route is still the best bet. David Frum, a former speech writer for President George W. Bush, who is credited with coining the phrase "axis of evil," wrote in Canada's National Post this week that the NIE is a "foundational political fact that will make it politically impossible for the Bush Administration to launch a strike at Iran's nuclear facilities."

"The Western goal ... should be to drive a wedge between the regime and its disaffected population – in the way that the Reagan administration worked to isolate and discredit Eastern European communist regimes in the 1980s."

A Western diplomat in Cairo, who asks not to be identified, says that creating space for Iranian reformers to maneuver is one reason for the outreach from Egypt and Saudi Arabia. He says the intent of their overtures is to show Iran that there are benefits to cooperation on the nuclear issue, while also creating an environment in which internal reformers in Iran are less likely to be branded tools of foreign powers.

"We'll be on a less threatening diplomatic track for a while now, as long as Ahmedinjad doesn't do anything inflammatory," says the diplomat.

Iran's state news agency described this Wednesday's meeting between Egyptian Deputy Foreign Minister Hussein Dirar and Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki as "constructive." Ahmedinejad urged a fast normalization of ties, and told reports that "I'm ready to go to Egypt."

Still, the last time Egypt and Iran nearly resumed ties, some four years ago, the effort foundered. Egypt sheltered the deposed Shah of Iran (Mohammad Reza Pahlavi), after the 1979 revolution. When Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, who took in the shah and made peace with Israel, was assassinated in 1981, the Iranian state named a major Tehran thoroughfare in honor of Khalid Islambouli, Mr. Sadat's killer.

Egypt had demanded the street be renamed as precondition for resuming ties. Iran agreed. But Ahmedinjad, then Tehran's mayor, never made the change.

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