New scrutiny on US spy structure

A leading intelligence official gives the community a B- on implementing reforms.

from the December 12, 2007 edition

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Some critics long have held that the establishment of a new layer of management does not automatically equal progress, however. And the abrupt reversal of course on Iran has surprised many lawmakers and experts in Washington. Whatever they think of the conclusion that Iran does not currently have a weapons program, they wonder about the suddenness of the move. What happened to change analysts' minds?

"I have to admit that the [National Intelligence Estimate] on Iran really started to raise questions for me about how well this new reorganization is working," says William Martel, an associate professor of international security studies at Tufts University's Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy in Medford, Mass.

Mr. Martel says he found the NIE to be something of a "political statement."

Others, however, feel that the Iran NIE shows that the new system is working. The fact that its conclusion is something of an embarrassment for the Bush administration, which has long pushed for a confrontational approach to Iran, shows that the DNI structure is capable of protecting intelligence work from White House influence, they say.

The Iran NIE contains more than 1,000 internal source notes, according to Kerr. It has not only benefited from better collection methods – news reports have cited communications intercepts, among other things – but also a larger set of analysts.

"This is probably one of the most well-sourced NIEs that has ever been produced," Kerr told the House.

Meanwhile, the news about the CIA's destruction of interrogation videotapes will likely lead to some sort of high-level probe, though by whom remains an open question.

Congress has already summoned CIA chief Hayden for closed hearings on the matter before both the House and Senate.

Reportedly, the tapes – documenting hundreds of hours of interrogation of at least two high-value alleged Al Qaeda detainees – were destroyed in November 2005, just as the office of the DNI was being established. The destruction also occurred after lawyers for Zacarias Moussaoui and Jose Padilla, two Al Qaeda suspects whose cases were transferred to civilian courts, had asked the government to turn over any interrogation videos in its possession.

"The timing is a little too convenient," says Carl Tobias, a law professor at the University of Richmond. Revelation of the tapes' existence could cause these cases to be reopened, he says.

"This is very messy as to ongoing and even pretty much completed cases," Mr. Tobias adds.

The Justice Department and the CIA's inspector general have started preliminary inquiries into the destruction of the tapes. Their work will determine if a full investigation is necessary, said Attorney General Michael Mukasey at a news conference Tuesday.

Mr. Mukasey declined to say whether an independent prosecutor would be necessary to get to the bottom of the matter. That question is "the most hypothetical of hypotheticals," he said.

• Material from the Associated Press was used in this report.

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