In Iran, Ahmadinejad's bold gambits boost presidential power
The firebrand leader has succeeded in grabbing more control despite wide criticism at home and abroad.
from the December 10, 2007 edition
Page 2 of 3
Experts say that Khamenei is now convinced – if he was not already – that Ahmadinejad's unbending stance on continuing uranium enrichment has borne fruit, despite a UN Security Council resolution demanding it stop.
Little organized opposition
The president's hard-line allies were punished in local elections last December. And a parliamentary vote next March may roll back the conservative majority. But there is still little organized opposition. And as powerful rivals begin positioning themselves for those votes – including the next presidential election in 2009 – Ahmadinejad has gone on the counterattack, calling opponents of his nuclear policies "traitors."
"The power of the presidency is limited in Iran, according to the law, and the term of the president is limited," says Amir Mohebian, political editor of the conservative Resalat newspaper. "[But] Mr. Ahmadinejad tried to concentrate powers inside his own hand [and] uses the opportunities of the presidency more than any president before."
"Before this, I thought Ahmadinejad is not an experienced politician. But he has shown he knows well the functions of power," says Mr. Mohebian. "Every act he takes now is for the next election…. Mr. Ahmadinejad wants to show himself as very strong, the boss, and unpredictable. Maybe this makes Mr. Ahmadinejad a threat for everyone inside and outside [Iran], but it can help [him] be more strong."
The coup de grâce that has still unsettled Iran's political establishment was the resignation – or forced removal – of chief nuclear negotiator and Khamenei protégé Ali Larijani. After his sixth attempt to resign was accepted in October, Mr. Larijani was replaced by Ahmadinejad loyalist Saeed Jalili, who effectively shut down negotiations with the European Union in his debut solo meeting.
"The guts! Who could have done that? It was unimaginable a few years ago," says one veteran analyst in Tehran of Larijani's replacement. "It is damaging and it is definitely a shrinking of the velayat-e faqih [Iran's rule of the supreme jurisprudent]. It's an advance by Ahmadinejad, and a retreat by Khamenei."
"Khamenei has never liked to be seen as overtly meddling…. But Ahmadinejad's bold and provocative moves ... have unsettled the political elite," says Farideh Farhi, an Iran expert at the University of Hawaii. They "are wondering if Khamenei is supportive of these rather partisan moves or unable to stop Ahmadinejad."
While theories abound about the sidelining of Larijani, some argue that the president's wide latitude is a function of trust, compared to ex-president Mohammad Khatami and two-time president Ali Akbar Rafsanjani.
"No matter what Ahmadinejad does, none of it threatens in any way the position of the supreme leader," says a political scientist in Tehran who asked not to be named. "His predecessors could not do that, because the supreme leader did not trust those two presidents. They had entourages that did not believe in the supreme leader's policies and the [divine sanctity of the] office."
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