Zogby: Iowans, New Hampshirites angry but less focused on Iraq

Veteran pollster finds Huckabee and Romney neck and neck in Iowa, while Clinton's lead shrinks in the Granite State.

from the December 6, 2007 edition

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Zogby's research confirms that finding. "What we have seen since August, late August, is the beginnings of what I call Iraq fatigue," Zogby said. "Not because it is an unimportant issue, but because voters are confused on the resolution of the issue… Iraq used to be cited as top of mind by 56 to 60 percent… It is now [cited by] about 28 percent as the No. 1 issue."

As for each party's prospects for winning the White House, Democrats in the two early-voting states are the most optimistic. "We asked, 'Who do you think will win the presidency – a Democrat or a Republican?' " Zogby said. "In Iowa ... 88 percent of Democrats said a Democrat would win. Among Republicans, one-third said that a Democrat would win." As a result, Zogby notes, "whoever wins this nomination and goes through this process on the Republican side is going to have to convince his own base that the Republicans can win."

One wild card on the Democratic side, in both states, is whether and how Oprah Winfrey's support for Senator Obama will affect the vote. Ms. Winfrey has said she will campaign with Obama this weekend. The celebrity and the senator plan to be in Des Moines and Cedar Rapids, Iowa, on Saturday, and in Columbia, S.C., and Manchester, N.H., on Sunday.

Past polls have shown that celebrity endorsements don't usually affect presidential races, Zogby said. But "this is a different sort of thing with Oprah. She has a proven track record of getting people to buy books, giving to charities, changing behavior, changing their mind-set within a one-hour program. There is a 'come to Jesus' in the late afternoon every weekday in America because of Oprah and her show. In this sense, this one endorsement could matter because she bonds with the heart."

Tracking what voters think about Oprah and other topics is getting harder for pollsters. "The biggest challenge is ... that people aren't answering the telephones," Zogby said. "The national and statewide response rates are low – some as low as 16 to 17 percent… That is often what I get. Some [other pollsters] are reporting 6 or 7 percent response rates.... When I started in the business in 1984, it was 65 percent."

While the national "do not call" list does not apply to pollsters, Zogby said it has empowered those contacted by polling firms to refuse to answer questions. His poll was conducted Nov. 29 through Dec. 1 in Iowa, and Dec. 1-3 in New Hampshire.

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