Six places in the world where climate change could cause political turmoil

United States: A new global ‘National Guard’?

Hurricane Katrina raised concerns that the US National Guard could be overstretched by its dual roles as both war fighters and as first responders during disasters. Climate change could provide the same test for all of America's armed forces.

The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Adm. Michael Mullen, has extolled the military's role in helping those affected by the South Asian tsunami of 2005. With climate forecasters suggesting that major weather disasters will likely increase, the United States military is being forced to consider whether it has the resources to continue to play a major role in providing disaster relief.

But it also exposes America to new risks. "What if a terrorist attack had killed servicemen in Indonesia?" asks Peter Ogden, senior policy analyst for national security and international policy at the Center for American Progress, a Washington, D.C., think tank. "To what extent are we prepared for that?"

Moreover, there is the question of whether US forces could attend to both disaster relief and war-fighting.

"If the frequency of natural disasters increases with climate change, future military and political leaders may face hard choices about where and when to engage," says a study by CNA Corp., a research group in Alexandria, Va.

Arctic: Melting ice and the race for oil

In August, a Russian submarine planted a Russian flag on the seabed beneath the North Pole. Perhaps it would have been more appropriate for the Russians to have waved a green flag, because the act symbolically started the race to claim the oil beneath Arctic ice.

As Arctic ice floes melt, suboceanic oil fields never before accessible will become reachable. Countries including Russia, Canada, Norway, and the United States are seeking to extend their authority as far as possible in the seafloor. "We assumed that most of the sovereignty debates had been settled," says Geoffrey Dabelko, who studies climate change and security. "This changes the sovereignty question in a fundamental way."

It could pit traditional allies – such as the US and Canada – against each other. And if large portions of the Arctic become navigable for large portions of the year, a list of other possible threats emerges.

"The US Navy is concerned about the retreat and thinning of the ice canopy and its implications for naval operations. A 2001 Navy study concluded that an ice-free Arctic will require an 'increased scope of naval operations,' " notes a climate change report by CNA Corp., a nonprofit group in Alexandria, Va.

East Africa: Desertification beyond Darfur

United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon has famously and controversially linked the conflict in Darfur to global warming. Though experts are wary of connecting Darfur directly to climate change, they say the rapid desertification of East Africa has played a role – and that this trend is only accelerating.

Decreased food production has set off large-scale migrations across the region. In Somalia, this created "the instability upon which the warlords capitalized," says Sherri Goodman, general counsel for CNA Corp., a nonprofit research organization that issued a report on climate change and US national security. In Darfur, food scarcity is thought to have brought herders and agriculturalists into conflict with one another.

These patterns hold true across East Africa – from Kenya to Uganda to Eritrea, with desertification and rising populations creating enormous pressures on shrinking resources. Food production in some parts of the region is expected to decline by as much as 70 percent in the future, according to a recent UN report. It is the speed of this change, accelerated by global warming, that is of greatest concern to many analysts.

"It's not the absolute scarcity of resources – it's always been dry in Africa – but it is the rate of change," says security analyst Geoffrey Dabelko. "When it changes so rapidly, institutions don't have time to respond."

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