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| Villagers carry airlifted relief supplies back to their homes in Patargata, Bangla¬desh, in the wake of cyclone Sidr last
month. Increasingly severe storms may push populations across borders. Pavel Rahman/AP |
Global warming may heat up conflicts, too
Surviving in a warmer world, Part 6: The worst effects of climate change may destabilize regions that were already shaky. The prime example: Bangladesh.
from the December 6, 2007 edition
Page 2 of 3
The scenario for Bangladesh requires little imagination:
•It is a frequent target of severe weather. During the worst floods, one-third of the country can be submerged. Last month's cyclone Sidr was an example of the kind of storms many scientists say will become more frequent in the future. Aid groups say the death toll in Bangladesh from Sidr could reach 10,000.
•Most of Bangladesh is flat and coastal, meaning that a sea-level rise of only three feet could consume 10 percent of the country, experts say.
•Bangladesh is the delta for several major river systems. They are fed by runoff from the Himalayan Mountains and provide the country with its fresh water. As Himalayan glaciers warm and melt, the rivers are expected to flood more in the short term. Later, as the glaciers disappear, they will become drier, which could lead to fresh water shortages.
"This is a very precarious piece of geography," says Adil Najam, one of the lead authors of the last two reports from the UN-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. "What we are talking about is an intensification of this to levels taking it even more out of control."
Even now, many Bangladeshis cannot cope. Last month, Selim Hossain Howladar's home vanished, swept away by the 150-m.p.h. winds of cyclone Sidr. "I have seen so many cyclones in my lifetime, but I have never seen anything that could flatten entire villages like it has done this time," says Mr. Howladar, a fisherman from the village of coastal village of Sarankhola.
Where Howladar's house used to be is now just a clearing. The trawler he bought last year with a loan was torn to pieces by the storm. "I don't even have a fishing net," he says. "What can I do but move to the city?"
In the north of the country, the story is the same. Three years ago, 25 Hindu families lived in the border village of Itapota. Now only one remains. Floods have driven off the rest, who are looking for work across the border in India.
"When you have nothing left to lose, does it matter where you live?" asks Haripada, patriarch of the last remaining Hindu family in his village. "You live where you think you might find work and earn some money."
Evidence suggests that current migration is mostly toward the capital, Dhaka, but people from border districts are increasingly going to India for seasonal employment.
"Bangladesh is so densely populated," says Ainun Nishat, head of the World Conservation Union office in Bangladesh, "as climate-change impacts cause food shortages and lack of employment, desperation will drive people far afield to seek out a means of survival."
The population shifts could exacerbate security issues beyond Bangladesh's borders.
For now, Bangladesh's Islamists are largely confined to a narrow band of remote hills in the extreme southeast. But if global warming creates more "dead land" – abandoned because it has been made infertile by sea-level rise, it could "create space for [terrorists] to operate," says Peter Ogden of the Center for American Progress, who cowrote a study titled "The Security Implications of Climate Change."
More stress for a stressed nation
That would be an unwelcome development for a country frequently under duress. In its 36 years of independence, Bangladesh has had 14 governments – four of which were replaced by military coups. The current government is again under military stewardship, with civilian leaders being rounded up on corruption charges.
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