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| President? A key Lebanese political bloc said it would back Gen. Michel Suleiman. Jamal Saidi/Reuters/file |
Is the U.S. now ready for talks with Syria?
Washington appears to be backing the Lebanese presidential contender favored by Damascus.
from the December 3, 2007 edition
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Certainly, despite Syria's attendance at Annapolis, US officials are playing down the prospects of renewed dialogue with Damascus, insisting that Syria still needs to change its behavior first. Still, speculation of a deal was perhaps inevitable, given that Syria, scorned by the US under the Bush administration as a state sponsor of terror, was invited to and chose to attend a conference hosted by President Bush.
Beyond that, Moscow began hinting that it hopes to hold a follow-up to Annapolis early next year that would focus on a Syrian-Israeli peace agreement.
Some US officials and experts now say that the change in tone could mean that Syria and Israel end up reaching an agreement on the Golan Heights – Syrian territory occupied by Israel since the 1967 Mideast war – and a bilateral peace accord before one is reached in the more complex Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
"Syria is being brought back in, including by Washington, and Syria is trying to dress itself up and get on Israel's dance card" to get the Golan Heights back, says Joshua Landis, a Syria expert at the University of Oklahoma in Norman, and author of the widely read "Syria Comment" blog.
Some analysts say adding a peace accord with Syria to the ones Israel already has with Egypt and Jordan would provide an important impetus to the ultimate prize of Israeli-Palestinian peace. But they say that will require more proactive and positive encouragement from the US than what has been evident so far.
"It's a good idea to encourage and facilitate Israel and Syria going forward rather quickly to secure a deal," says Patrick Lang, a former Middle East specialist with the Defense Intelligence Agency. "That would set the stage for the real deal between the Israelis and Palestinians." But he adds that it will take an "active role" by the US on the Israel-Syria front. "If we don't do that after the opening provided by [Annapolis], then we have lost an opportunity."
But an Israeli-Syrian deal on the Golan Heights is not Washington's chief interest in pursuing a dialogue with Damascus, analysts say. Instead, Washington's principle motives are to seek Damascus's cooperation on the Israeli-Palestinian track as well as attempting to loosen Syria's close relationship with Iran.
Syria and Iran have been allies since 1980, but their ties strengthened significantly in the past two years as a result of both countries facing increased international pressure and isolation.
"It's very unlikely for the US to break Syria from Iran, maybe perhaps ever, because Syria maintains a balance of power relations with its neighbors and powers in the region and I don't think it would like to put all its eggs in one basket," says Andrew Tabler, editor of the Damascus-based Syria Today monthly.
Tabler says the weak link in the Syria-Iran relationship, which could be exploited by the US, is to provide assistance to promote Syria's moribund economic reform program.
"The Syrians are in a fiscal crunch due to declining oil revenues, and one of the biggest problems they face is corruption and low productivity," he says. "The US has a lot of expertise that it could extend Syria's way. That's a special sweetener that I just don't think the Iranians could ever offer."
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