In Mideast peace process, how big a role will Bush play?

Bush appears to be playing down the importance of the US in the process, but some experts see a need for an active outside arbiter.

from the November 29, 2007 edition

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Indeed, the Bush administration appears to be playing down the importance of the US role, when past experience suggests the two sides need an outside arbiter pushing them along, some analysts say. "If history serves as a guide, the Israeli-Palestinian peace process will not go anywhere without US presidential intervention," says Fawaz Gerges, a Middle East expert at Sarah Lawrence College in Bronxville, N.Y.

In some ways, the wording of the joint statement reached by the Israelis and Palestinians suggests less involvement for the US than words Bush previously used.

In the document, Bush said the US will "monitor and judge" the fulfillment of commitments for both parties to the "road map" – the 2003 document that spelled out steps the sides would take for getting final-status talks on track. When Bush announced the road map in 2003, he said the US, in addition to monitoring and judging progress, was charged with "helping the parties to move towards peace."

Hughes of the Middle East Institute says it's probably "wise" of the administration not to use the same wording for this process, since the commitment to help "the parties to move towards peace" was never really carried out and the road map fell into dormancy.

Hughes cites two things he'll be watching for in the coming weeks to gauge US involvement: whether an envoy, especially one of stature and access to Bush, is named to oversee the "monitoring" of the progress, and whether a "structure" is set up for the US to follow the parties' progress on specific issues.

But such steps may matter little if the US at the highest levels is not committed to intervening when the negotiating road inevitably gets rough, others say.

"You can talk about the two sides having to want to do this for themselves, but as soon as there's a dispute, that's when we'll see how much and in what way the administration really intends to engage," says Charles Dunbar, a former US ambassador to various postings in the region who is now a Middle East expert at Boston University.

Others note that the commitment of the US to monitoring and judging seems to play down the role of the Quartet of powers – the US, Russia, the European Union, and the UN – in the relaunched process. Mr. Gerges of Sarah Lawrence College says he would have liked to see mention of the UN resolutions that set a basis for the international requirements to be fulfilled in any settlement.

The focus on the US, Mr. Dunbar says, recognizes the "reality" that it is the "essential power" that both sides turn to to keep the process moving. But that means the US will have to be engaged "beyond pretty words," he says, if the expectations of Annapolis are to be fulfilled.

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