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| South African president Thabo Mbeki has lost some control of the ruling ANC party to his bitter rival Jabob Zuma. Dennis Farrell/AP |
South Africa leadership fight heats up
The ruling ANC will elect a new party president at a closed-door meeting next month. President Thabo Mbeki's rival, Jacob Zuma, emerged this week as a favorite.
from the November 29, 2007 edition
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"We have not [chosen] any candidate in the ANC and we won't back any candidate as an organization," says Blade Nzimande, president of the South African Communist Party, which is an alliance with the ANC and shares posts in the ANC government. "But at the same time, we cannot be blind to the fact that the majority of SACP members should prefer someone like Jacob Zuma."
The SACP and the Confederation of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) are part of a ruling alliance with the ANC, although both the Communists and the labor partners have become increasingly vocal in their disagreements with Mbeki's economic policy.
But Richard Calland, a senior political analyst at the Institute for Democracy in South Africa, says that Zuma's supporters in the SACP and COSATU are "naive" if they think that Zuma will become a champion for leftist causes.
"This is not a contest of ideas. It's a contest of two streams of patronage," says Mr. Calland. "I think that Nzimande and many communists are deluding themselves if they think that their ideology will benefit from having a change. But what this leadership process does is create opportunities for different people to get involved while the party is in a state of flux."
What President Mbeki wants
Mbeki's dream team, meanwhile, appears to include himself as president of the party, and to have a woman as the ANC's candidate for president of the country. The two names most frequently mentioned as possible candidates are top women members of Mbeki's cabinet: Ms. Dlamini-Zuma, and the Ms. Mlambo-Ngcuka.
Yet all eyes now seem to be turning to so-called "compromise" candidates, particularly two millionaire businessmen who come with excellent ANC credentials from the years of struggle.
Tokyo Sexwale is a former anti-apartheid activist who quit politics in the late 1990s to enter the diamond mining business.
Cyril Ramaphosa is a former trade union leader who became a director of several South African companies. Both are thought to have credentials to rule, but uncertain numbers of supporters within the ANC.
"I think things are going to start moving toward a compromise candidate," says Adam Habib, a political analyst and deputy chancellor of the University of Johannesburg. But all bets are off, Mr. Habib adds, because the ANC leadership process is opaque, with very little input from the vast majority of South Africans who are not actual ANC members.
"I think the big weakness of South African democracy is the fact that there's not a viable opposition that can create accountability" for the ruling regime, says Habib.
Like Japan, India, Mexico, and China, South Africa is dominated by the liberation movement that brought the country freedom, and in those other countries, one-party rule was a fact of life for 30, 40, and even 50 years.
South Africa's turmoil is coming much faster in that sense, Habib says.
"That is something that is worth bearing in mind, that 10 years into ANC rule, we're seeing a huge change taking place in the party," he says. "In a way, that shows a greater hope for South Africa."
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