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Ashfaq Kayani: the new man with the baton in Pakistan

Pakistan's president doffed his military uniform Wednesday and handed over a sensitive post.

from the November 29, 2007 edition

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"Musharraf chose him as someone who is loyal and also professionally acceptable to the rest of the Army," says Ikram Sehgal, editor of the Defence Journal. "He has a clean and solid reputation."

But his mettle may be tested now as he finds himself at the epicenter of a power struggle. The military had always been the source of Musharraf's real power throughout his rule, say analysts. Now, cut off from it and thrown into the ring of civilian politics, history suggests that he will need the military to remain loyal if he is to remain as president.

One risk for Musharraf is that other Pakistani politicians may now be able to influence the new Army chief. Pakistani political leaders, especially when caught outside the ruling group, have a history of approaching the chief of the Army to intervene. Such power plays have led to past Army takeovers.

Kayani has served as the military secretary to Benazir Bhutto, one of the leaders of the opposition movement to Musharraf, during her first tenure as prime minister. He was also instrumental in brokering the failed political deal between her and Musharraf earlier this year. But based on his record, experts say, Kayani is unlikely to be swayed by entreaties from Musharraf's opponents.

The Pakistani Army, note former officers, now has the opportunity to focus on the task at hand: fighting an insurgency that is creeping closer to the major cities outside of Pakistan's tribal regions.

Kayani, who met John Negroponte at length during the US deputy secretary of state's visit this month, will now be in charge of the war against Taliban militants, as well as instrumental in combating the guerrillas who are now attacking the cities with suicide bombers.

"Musharraf inherited the situation," says Mr. Sehgal, referring to Pakistan's involvement in the US-backed war on terrorism that followed America's invasion of Afghanistan in October 2001. "But Kayani can't afford to toe anyone's line unconditionally," he says. The expectation from within the Army and popular opinion will require the general to restore order in the frontier region – to succeed where Musharraf effectively failed.

Kayani may reconfigure the counter-terrorism strategy, which has produced mixed results under Musharraf. "From some of the statements he's made," says Masood, "it seems he's inclined to using economic and political strategy in the tribal areas," instead of force.

But in a country where the Army's discussion of strategy seldom leaves the confines of the war rooms, the new dynamic between Muhsarraf and his successor, as well as its impact on the popular opposition movement and war against militants, will only become clear with time.

"What General Musharraf is hoping to be a smooth transition," says Zaffar Abbas, an editor at the country's largest English daily, Dawn, "may turn out to be the beginning of a drastic transformation."

 

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